The Seoul Institute's projection that the city's population could decrease to 8.1 million by 2050 is not just a statistic; it serves as a warning about South Korea's future. Currently, Seoul's population stands at approximately 9.34 million, indicating a potential loss of over 1.2 million people in just 25 years. The issue at hand is not merely the decline in numbers, but who is disappearing.
According to the Seoul Institute, the working-age population is expected to plummet from 7.79 million in 2010 to 4.51 million by 2050. Particularly concerning is the forecast that the proportion of the population aged 25 to 49, a key demographic for the economy and consumption, will drop from 42% in 2020 to just 9.7% by 2050. The share of young people aged 15 to 24 is also projected to halve. This shift indicates a society where the younger generation is shrinking while the elderly population is growing, raising fears that Seoul could transform from a global metropolis into a major city for seniors.
This trend is not limited to Seoul; it reflects a national reality facing all of South Korea. Until now, the low birthrate issue has been viewed primarily through the lens of birthrate statistics—how many children are born and how the total fertility rate fluctuates. While these figures are important, the more fundamental concern is the collapse of the population structure. A society where there are more dependents than producers, where the demand for healthcare and welfare outpaces the number of consumers, and where there are more elderly than young people is becoming a reality.
Seoul serves as a microcosm of South Korea. Changes occurring in Seoul will soon be mirrored across the nation. The decline in Seoul's working-age population will inevitably lead to a decrease in national growth rates. Companies will struggle to find workers, consumer markets will contract, and the tax base will shrink while welfare expenditures rise. This is why OECD countries have been addressing aging populations.
More concerning is that current low birthrate policies are failing to tackle the root issues. Despite the allocation of tens of trillions of won, young people continue to delay marriage and childbirth. The reasons are straightforward: a lack of stable jobs, high housing costs, and significant educational expenses. The prospect of raising children seems daunting, and no amount of financial incentives will change that.
Japan has already traveled this path ahead of South Korea. Despite investing vast sums over decades, it has not achieved the expected increase in birthrates. Japan's experience offers a clear lesson: birthrates do not respond to slogans; they respond to living conditions. Young people need to be able to envision a future in order to marry and have children.
The crucial step now is to confront reality. Efforts to prevent population decline must be paired with strategies to adapt to a declining population. Extending retirement ages, expanding reemployment opportunities, utilizing older workers, innovating productivity, and leveraging AI and digital technologies are no longer optional; they are essential tasks that should have already begun.
Additionally, a national strategy is needed to restructure the population distribution concentrated in Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan area. The disappearance of rural areas could signal the onset of national decline. If we cannot provide businesses, jobs, education, and healthcare in regions losing young people, South Korea's population problem will only worsen.
Population is the most vital asset of a nation. Semiconductor factories can be built with money, and AI technology can be secured through investment. However, lost population cannot be easily restored. Population decline poses economic, security, and existential challenges for the nation.
The projection of 8.1 million people in Seoul by 2050 may still seem like a distant future. However, changes in population structure have already begun. What is needed now is the courage to face reality and a long-term national strategy. It is time to view the population issue not as a challenge for the next government, but as a matter of survival for South Korea.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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