This year, national tax revenue is expected to exceed the government's revised projections made during the supplementary budget process in April. The increase in corporate tax revenue due to a strong semiconductor market and a surge in securities transaction tax from a booming stock market could result in an additional 10 to 15 trillion won in tax revenue beyond the estimates.
According to relevant authorities on June 14, the cumulative national tax revenue from January to April reached 164.1 trillion won, an increase of 21.9 trillion won (15.4%) compared to the same period last year.
If the current growth trend continues through the end of the year, the total national tax revenue for 2026 is projected to reach 431.5 trillion won, surpassing the government's April estimate of 415.4 trillion won by 16.1 trillion won.
Previously, the government had raised its national tax revenue forecast from an initial budget estimate of 390.2 trillion won to 415.4 trillion won, an increase of 25.2 trillion won. However, due to the semiconductor boom and stock market performance, the pace of tax revenue growth has accelerated, suggesting it could exceed the supplementary budget estimate by more than 15 trillion won in just two months.
Applying the average tax revenue progress rate of 38.6% from the past five years for April, the annual national tax revenue is estimated at 425.1 trillion won, approximately 9.7 trillion won more than the supplementary budget estimate. This implies that the excess tax revenue could range from 10 to 15 trillion won.
The key driver of this tax revenue increase is corporate tax. From January to April, corporate tax revenue reached 39 trillion won, an increase of 3.2 trillion won (8.9%) compared to the same period last year. With continued improvements in the performance of semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, an upward trend is expected in the corporate tax interim payment scheduled for August.
Unexpectedly high securities transaction tax revenue is also seen as a contributing factor. From January to April, securities transaction tax revenue surged to 4.1 trillion won, a staggering increase of 290.9% compared to the same period last year. This growth is attributed to increased trading volumes in the stock market and the effects of higher tax rates.
In March, the trading volume of listed stocks reached 1,449.4 trillion won, quadrupling from the same month last year. In May, buoyed by strong performance in the semiconductor sector, the KOSPI index surpassed 8,000, indicating that the trend of increasing securities transaction tax revenue is likely to continue for the time being.
Notably, the proportion of securities transaction tax in total national tax revenue, which was only 0.9% last year, has expanded to 2.5% based on the January to April figures. While this share remains relatively small, it has emerged as a significant variable influencing this year's excess tax revenue.
Income tax is also contributing to the increase in tax revenue. From January to April, income tax revenue reached 44.7 trillion won, up 5.9 trillion won (15.2%) from the previous year. This increase is driven by higher labor income taxes due to expanded bonuses and a recovery in real estate transaction volumes leading to increased capital gains taxes.
However, high oil prices and exchange rates could dampen consumer spending, posing a risk that value-added tax revenue may fall short of expectations. Additionally, it is noted that performance bonuses for major semiconductor companies are typically paid the following year, which could limit the extent of tax revenue growth.
The government plans to present a revised national tax revenue forecast in September. If the positive tax revenue trend continues and significantly exceeds the supplementary budget estimates, strategies for utilizing the excess tax revenue are expected to become a key issue in fiscal policy discussions for the second half of the year.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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