The 2026 FIFA North America World Cup is entering the knockout stage, where top contenders will face off in the round of 16.
As teams' tactical strategies become clearer, factors such as stamina recovery, tactical changes by coaches, and environmental conditions will play crucial roles in determining the outcomes. Ahead of these unpredictable matches, we analyze the situation using big data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) simulations alongside insights from veteran experts. In this second installment, we focus on three matches featuring host nations and European powerhouses.
On July 6 at 9 a.m. (Korean time), co-host Mexico will face England at the Mexico City Stadium. Mexico (FIFA ranking 10) finished the group stage with three wins and defeated Ecuador 2-0 in the round of 32, showcasing solid defensive strength and maintaining a perfect record without conceding a goal.
England (FIFA ranking 4) recorded two wins and one draw in the group stage and narrowly defeated the Democratic Republic of Congo 2-1 in the round of 32, with star striker Harry Kane scoring twice. Kane has netted five goals in four matches during the tournament, demonstrating his scoring prowess.
This will be the first World Cup clash between Mexico and England in 60 years, with their last encounter in the 1966 tournament ending in a 2-0 victory for England.
AI predicts that Mexico has a 55% chance of winning, stating, "The high-altitude environment at 7,200 feet and the enthusiastic support of 80,000 home fans will likely lead to a significant drop in stamina for the visiting England players in the second half. If England fails to score before their energy wanes, it will be challenging to breach Mexico's defense, which has yet to concede a goal in this tournament."
Conversely, experts have high regard for England's capabilities. KBSN commentator Kim Dae-gil estimates England's chances at around 65%, stating, "No matter how much of a home advantage Mexico has, overcoming England is not easy. This is where Mexico's journey ends. Kane is fulfilling his role as a game-changer, and I believe England will dominate the match."
JTBC commentator Hwang Deok-yeon also predicts a 60% chance of victory for England, noting, "Objectively, England has the upper hand. While there are variables like altitude adaptation and home crowd support, I expect England to win by a narrow margin, especially with Kane's significant impact on the game. He should be able to score at least one goal against Mexico."
On July 7 at 4 a.m., the highly anticipated Iberian Derby between Portugal and Spain will take place at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Portugal (FIFA ranking 7) advanced to the knockout stage with one win and two draws in the group stage, defeating Croatia 2-1 in the round of 32. Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first goal in a World Cup knockout match, followed by a dramatic late winner from Gonçalo Ramos.
Spain (FIFA ranking 3) finished the group stage with two wins and one draw, overpowering Austria 3-0 in the round of 32 while maintaining a clean sheet throughout the tournament. Forward Mikel Oyarzabal has recorded two multi-goal games, including one against Saudi Arabia.
Historically, Spain leads the World Cup head-to-head with one win and one draw, having won 1-0 in the 2010 South Africa tournament and drawn 3-3 in the 2018 Russia tournament. However, Portugal triumphed in the UEFA Nations League final last year, winning in a penalty shootout after a 2-2 draw.
AI forecasts a 60% chance of victory for Spain, stating, "Spain's destructive wing play led by Lamine Yamal and their precise possession game will wear down Portugal's defense. Given Portugal's inconsistency since the group stage, they will struggle to cope with Spain's strong pressing game."
Experts are focusing on the organizational differences between the two teams. Kim predicts a 55% chance of victory for Spain, stating, "With 4-5 players from FC Barcelona consistently in the lineup, Spain has good organization and balance. Yamal's form is improving, and Oyarzabal is also performing well, so I expect Spain to win 2-1."
Hwang estimates Spain's chances at 60%, saying, "Spain's team has improved in quality as the tournament progresses, while Portugal faces significant risks with their coach. Roberto Martinez's shortcomings and Ronaldo's inability to perform against strong teams are concerning."
Hwang also highlights an interesting matchup: "The one-on-one battle between Spain's Yamal and Portugal's left-back Nuno Mendes will be intriguing. I suspect Yamal may struggle against Mendes."
On the same day at 9 a.m., co-host United States will clash with European powerhouse Belgium at Seattle Stadium in Washington State. The United States (FIFA ranking 16) finished the group stage with two wins and one loss, defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the round of 32. They have scored 10 goals in four matches, showcasing their offensive strength. However, the recent red card to star forward Folarin Balogun in the Bosnia match will be a significant loss for the US in this knockout stage.
Belgium (FIFA ranking 9) advanced from the group stage with one win and two draws, dramatically defeating Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the round of 32. After trailing 2-0, goals from Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans in the second half brought them back, with Tielemans scoring the decisive penalty kick just before the end of extra time.
This will be the first meeting between the two teams since the 2014 World Cup round of 16, where Belgium won 2-1 in extra time. They also faced each other in the inaugural tournament in 1930, with the United States winning 3-0.
AI predicts a 55% chance of victory for the United States, emphasizing the differences in mobility and fatigue levels. AI states, "The United States' impressive offensive output, with 10 goals scored in the round of 32, combined with the overwhelming support from Seattle fans, will create a challenging environment for Belgium, who just played 120 minutes. The US 'golden generation's' superior stamina and mobility will likely overwhelm Belgium's physical limitations."
Experts also lean toward the United States. Hwang predicts a 55% chance of victory for the US, stating, "While Belgium has a stronger individual squad, the US appears to have better overall cohesion as a team. They are more balanced and refined as a unit rather than relying on standout individual performances."
Kim views the match as a tightly contested 50-50 battle but leans slightly toward the US, noting, "While Belgium has shown inconsistency, the overwhelming support from US fans will be a significant advantage. The US may have a slight edge in this matchup, which could ignite a soccer craze across the nation."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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