The proportion of 'rising transactions'—sales at higher prices than previous deals—in the Seoul apartment market has significantly increased. In June, the share of rising transactions in Seoul surpassed 57%, leading the national trend. However, analysts caution that the decline in transaction volume and potential regulatory changes necessitate further observation.
On July 13, Zigbang reported that, according to data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the share of rising transactions in nationwide apartment sales rose to 47.3% in June, up from 45.7% in May.
In the metropolitan area, Seoul's increase in rising transactions was particularly notable, jumping from 47.7% in May to 57.1% in June—a 9.4 percentage point rise in just one month. In May, only five districts had rising transaction shares exceeding 50%, but this number expanded to 23 districts in June, excluding Gangnam and Gwangjin.
By district, the largest increases in rising transaction shares were seen in Yongsan (17.7 percentage points), Mapo (15.8 percentage points), Jungnang (15.5 percentage points), Seocho (14.6 percentage points), Gwanak (13.3 percentage points), Yeongdeungpo (13.0 percentage points), Geumcheon (12.4 percentage points), and Seongdong (12.2 percentage points).
Notably, areas with relatively lower-priced apartments, such as Jungnang, Gwanak, Yeongdeungpo, and Geumcheon, also saw an increase in rising transaction shares, indicating a shift in trading patterns in regions that had previously experienced limited price increases.
However, Seoul's transaction volume decreased from 7,681 in May to 3,105 in June. As transaction reports are still being processed, there is potential for changes in the rising transaction share depending on fluctuations in transaction volume and composition.
In Gyeonggi Province, the share of rising transactions increased from 46.4% to 49.4%, a 3.0 percentage point rise. Areas leading this increase included Gwacheon (22.7 percentage points), Seongnam's Sujeong District (20.1 percentage points), Gwangmyeong (13.7 percentage points), Seongnam's Bundang District (10.7 percentage points), Suwon's Yeongtong District (8.8 percentage points), and Hwaseong's Dongtan District (8.6 percentage points).
While Seongnam, Gwacheon, and Gwangmyeong saw an increase in rising transaction shares despite a decrease in transaction volume, Dongtan experienced a 41% increase in transaction volume compared to the previous month, leading to a rise in its share of rising transactions as well. Zigbang attributed this trend to expectations of improved transportation conditions due to expanded semiconductor industry investments and the opening of the GTX-A line.
In Incheon, the share of rising transactions in June remained stable at 44.1%, slightly down from 44.2% the previous month. While there was a slight increase in rising transactions centered around Yeongjong, overall changes were minimal.
In the provinces, trends varied by region. The overall share of rising transactions in the provinces decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.3%. While regions such as Gangwon (3.5 percentage points), Chungnam (3.3 percentage points), Ulsan (2.7 percentage points), and Gyeongbuk (1.6 percentage points) saw increases, Jeju (-5.6 percentage points), Jeonbuk (-4.6 percentage points), and Daegu (-3.3 percentage points) experienced more significant declines.
Zigbang noted, "The increase in rising transaction shares in June reflects distinct regional differences rather than a uniform national trend. As June's transactions were influenced by market conditions prior to the government's additional regulatory area designations and tax reform discussions, it is essential to monitor how future policy changes will impact transaction flows."
Meanwhile, according to Zigbang, as of June 6, the gap in deposits between new lease contracts and renewals has widened, particularly in Seoul, due to rising rental prices. In Seoul, the deposit for new contracts for 84 square meters has been found to be up to 80 million won higher than for renewals.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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