U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that while President Donald Trump is escalating military action against Iran, current airstrikes are unlikely to change Iran's negotiation stance. Analysts also suggest that Iran is rapidly restoring military and critical infrastructure damaged by the strikes.
According to CNN on July 23, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) believe that the ongoing U.S. airstrikes are not likely to alter Iran's position in negotiations. The report cited two U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence assessment.
Despite suffering significant military and economic damage from U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran's leadership appears to believe it can endure longer than the United States. Iran continues to exert pressure on the U.S. by targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and energy facilities in the Gulf region.
Alex Vatanka, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, stated, "Iran is willing to endure economic and military losses under the belief that it can outlast President Trump's resolve to continue the war."
CNN noted that if the airstrikes and retaliatory actions continue for an extended period, there could be additional U.S. casualties and a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. This situation could mirror the "endless wars" in the Middle East that President Trump has criticized.
Iran's rapid recovery capabilities have also been identified as a factor diminishing the effectiveness of military pressure from the U.S. and Israel.
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing satellite imagery analysis from Israeli and Western officials, that Iran is quickly restoring facilities damaged in airstrikes, including missile bases, bridges, ports, and production sites.
In Khangavar, western Iran, the entrances and access roads to a missile base destroyed in a March airstrike were reportedly repaired within weeks. Bridges that were damaged in the strikes were also restored in just a few days.
The focus of the airstrikes on collapsing tunnel entrances rather than the underground missile facilities themselves has expedited the recovery process. Much of the weaponry and equipment stored inside remained undamaged, allowing Iran to clear debris and reopen access points for use.
Former Israeli Air Defense and Missile Defense Commander Ran Kohav remarked, "Iran has replenished its missile stockpile and possesses significant weapon production and recovery capabilities."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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