Analysis suggests that President Donald Trump is struggling to find a clear exit from the nearly five-month-long conflict in Iran. He faces challenges in both escalating military action and withdrawing from the war.
The New York Times reported on July 26 that Trump is caught between options of escalation, prolonged pressure, and withdrawal, stating, "President Trump is unable to easily choose any of these paths."
U.S. forces conducted airstrikes against Iran for 13 consecutive days before halting attacks on July 24. Trump considered targeting key Iranian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, but ultimately decided to postpone large-scale escalation after discussions with national security advisors.
Advisors expressed uncertainty about whether further airstrikes would bring Iran back to the negotiating table. They also noted that attacking infrastructure could lead to significant civilian casualties and increase domestic opposition to escalation.
Concerns have also been raised about the U.S. military's missile stockpile. As the U.S. and Iran exchanged missile and drone attacks, the inventory of defensive interceptors has reportedly dwindled.
General Dan Kane, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has warned about the potential depletion of missile and ammunition reserves even before the conflict began. Vice President JD Vance has also reportedly expressed reservations about expanding the war with Iran.
Instead of military action, there are options to intensify economic pressure through sanctions and maritime blockades. However, analysts believe that the Iranian regime, which has withstood international sanctions for an extended period, is unlikely to capitulate quickly.
If economic pressure continues for a long time, the conflict and instability in the Strait of Hormuz may persist. Rising international oil prices and increased volatility in financial markets could pose political challenges for Trump.
Withdrawing from the war while declaring a unilateral victory is also fraught with difficulty. If the U.S. fails to prevent Iran's nuclear development and does not resolve the instability in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump could face criticism for waging a war without a clear outcome.
There remains a possibility that Iran could resume nuclear development while evading international oversight. In such a scenario, the justification for U.S. military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons could be undermined.
The NYT concluded that "President Trump, who believed he had unlimited power, is now confronting the limits of military force, weapon stockpiles, domestic opinion, and diplomatic options through the Iran conflict."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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