President Donald Trump indicated that an agreement with Iran regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is possible and hinted at a resumption of talks that include nuclear issues. However, experts believe that while an agreement on reopening the strait may be feasible, significant differences remain between the two sides regarding nuclear negotiations.
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera, "President Trump clearly prefers diplomacy over continuing the war. This is not a war that has gone well for him."
Kupchan assessed that there is a possibility of establishing a framework for negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but he stated, "Absolutely not" regarding the likelihood of a substantive agreement on nuclear issues, adding, "Even if an agreement is possible, we are still a long way from it."
He noted that Iran has confirmed its ability to use the current conflict as leverage in negotiations over the Strait, suggesting that the operation of the strait will not return to pre-war conditions. However, he analyzed that both the U.S. and Iran have faced significant burdens from the conflict, indicating that "there is a possible agreement on the strait issue."
Kupchan also pointed to concerns about the escalation of conflict as a factor that has prompted Trump to pursue negotiations. He referenced recent attacks on U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Jordan by Iran, assaults on Saudi vessels by Houthi rebels, and an attack on a U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier in an Egyptian port, stating, "We want to end the conflict before something terrible happens."
Earlier, Trump announced on his way back to Washington, D.C., from Bedminster, New Jersey, that there is an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. He stated, "Next will be an agreement on the nuclear issue, or what we can call an agreement on Iran's denuclearization," adding, "What we are trying to do now is to talk to them in the form of negotiations."
He indicated that talks with Iran are set to begin on the afternoon of August 3, U.S. time. However, Trump did not disclose specific details about the agreement related to the Strait, nor the participants or location of the negotiations.
Alan Eyre, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who participated in the U.S. negotiating team during the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, expressed skepticism about the possibility of direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Eyre stated, "Iran believes it cannot trust the U.S. and sees no value in talking to us," adding that he has significant doubts about claims that Trump is approaching an agreement with Iran on nuclear or Strait of Hormuz issues.
He evaluated that the only meaningful negotiations currently taking place are discussions between Oman and Iran regarding the Strait. Oman is coordinating opinions with other Gulf states before consulting with Iran, but he explained that significant differences remain between the two sides.
While Iran asserts control over the Strait, including the imposition of tolls, Oman maintains that any fees should be voluntarily paid by vessels and nations.
Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, criticized Trump for repeatedly threatening attacks on Iran and then retracting those threats, undermining trust in negotiations. Parsi stated, "There is a tiresome pattern of issuing apocalyptic threats and then trying to create the impression that he also backed down because the other side did first. It is better to retract attacks and give diplomacy another chance than to escalate the war."
He warned, "This cannot go on forever. At some point, trust in keeping agreements and the incentives presented will disappear, and the credibility of threats will weaken."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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