Amid pressure from the Trump administration, the United States is exploring potential new leaders for Cuba, according to a report by The New York Times on August 7. The U.S. is considering options similar to its approach in Venezuela, where former President Nicolás Maduro was extradited to New York for regime change. However, there are concerns that a more hardline leader could emerge in Cuba, akin to the situation in Iran.
The newspaper cited current and former U.S. officials, stating that the Trump administration has been reviewing both current and former Cuban officials who could lead a pro-American shift in the regime rather than a complete regime change. The model referenced is the January operation in which U.S. special forces captured Maduro and brought him to New York. Raúl Castro, the former president of the National Assembly and a key figure in the Cuban regime, has been indicted in a U.S. court for allegedly ordering the killings of Cuban exiles.
Reports indicate that the Trump administration has tasked U.S. intelligence agencies with identifying figures like Delcy Rodríguez, the interim president of Venezuela, who might be willing to cooperate with the U.S. Rodríguez was seen as a pragmatic figure from the Maduro government.
However, U.S. intelligence officials assess that Cuba's situation is more akin to Iran's than Venezuela's. Following attacks by the U.S. and Israel in February, Iran's leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, faced early removal. Yet, hardliners have gained strength, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps solidifying its power. Despite rumors about the health of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, hardliners maintain a strong domestic foothold, complicating the Trump administration's considerations regarding the current Cuban government.
The Times identified potential candidates for Cuba's leadership, including Oscar Pérez Oliva Praga, Raúl Rodríguez Castro, and Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, the Minister of the Interior. Pérez Oliva Praga, the grandson of Fidel Castro's brother, has recently made public appearances on state television, enhancing his visibility. While he is viewed as a preferred candidate by the Cuban government, the Times suggests he may be difficult for the U.S. to accept.
Raúl Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, has been close to the government since childhood, serving as his grandfather's bodyguard, but he has not held a high-ranking public office. Minister Casas, a three-star general, is recognized as an intelligence expert and has strengthened political ties with China and Russia during his tenure. According to the Associated Press, when CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba in May, Rodríguez Castro and Minister Casas represented the Cuban side.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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