As the vulnerabilities of U.S. air defense systems at military bases in the Middle East were revealed during the Iran conflict, warnings have emerged that U.S. facilities in the Pacific, including South Korea, Japan, and Guam, are also susceptible to missile and drone attacks from China and North Korea. The ongoing war in Iran has rapidly depleted key air defense weapon stockpiles, raising concerns about the defense burden in the Indo-Pacific region.
Seth Jones, director of the Defense and Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on August 10 that “the U.S. has been too slow to apply the lessons learned from the Ukraine war to the defense of U.S. military bases in the Middle East,” adding that “the challenges in the Pacific are much greater.”
Jones specifically pointed out that U.S. military bases and infrastructure across the Pacific, from Japan and the Philippines to Guam and South Korea, are highly vulnerable to missile and drone attacks from China and North Korea.
According to Jones, Iran conducted over 2,000 aerial, missile, and drone attacks during the conflict, damaging at least 20 facilities used by U.S. forces across eight countries. More than 42 U.S. aircraft were damaged or destroyed, with damage to equipment and facilities estimated at up to $13 billion.
The conflict has also significantly reduced U.S. air defense weapon stockpiles. CSIS estimates that from February to July, the U.S. used about 65% of its Patriot missile interceptors, decreasing its stock from approximately 2,330 missiles to fewer than 850. The stockpile of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors has also been notably reduced.
The air defense burden may increase further against China. Jones highlighted that “China possesses a larger and more capable arsenal of drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles than Iran.”
As air defense resources have been concentrated in the Middle East, there have been instances of forces being diverted from the Indo-Pacific region. The Wall Street Journal reported that some U.S. Patriot missile units stationed in South Korea and Japan were moved to Qatar to help counter Iranian ballistic missile threats.
Jones recommended the establishment of long-range air defense systems like the Patriot, as well as a medium-range air defense system known as Indirect Fire Protection Capability (IFPC) to counter cruise missiles and drones, and short-range systems to intercept drones. He also emphasized the need to utilize electronic warfare equipment, such as lasers and high-power microwaves, to counter drones.
He stressed the importance of enhancing the self-defense capabilities of bases, advocating for the protection of aircraft and key facilities with underground or reinforced concrete structures, and dispersing fighter jets and logistics facilities across multiple bases to prevent significant damage from a single attack.
Jones warned that “Congress and the Department of Defense must expedite the maintenance, repair, and modernization of U.S. military bases,” stating that “the U.S. has already paid a heavy price for being unprepared in a world where drones and missiles are prevalent.” He added, “China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are watching this closely.”
* This article has been translated by AI.
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