U.S. military intelligence has assessed that Iran considers control of the Hormuz Strait more important than its nuclear program.
According to NBC News on August 11, multiple U.S. officials familiar with the matter stated, "U.S. military intelligence has recently reported that Iran's strategic priority has shifted from its nuclear program to the Hormuz Strait."
The U.S. military has reportedly informed President Donald Trump that while it is possible to use force to seize control of the strait, success is not guaranteed. They warned that operations could become prolonged, resulting in significant casualties among U.S. forces.
Similar concerns have emerged from European and Gulf officials. NBC reported that regional authorities conveyed to the U.S. that if the military were to forcibly open the strait, Iranian missile and drone attacks could pose risks to U.S. naval vessels, and a definitive victory would be difficult to achieve.
European officials believe that Iran effectively controls the Hormuz Strait, giving it a favorable position in negotiations. They assess that the strait has become a more direct and powerful leverage point against the U.S. and the West than Iran's nuclear program.
This perspective contrasts with President Trump's recent assertion that, "The only force currently controlling the Hormuz Strait is the U.S. Navy," emphasizing American dominance in the area.
However, shipping traffic has not yet returned to normal levels. According to Reuters, only six vessels passed through the Hormuz Strait on August 10, with recent daily traffic significantly below pre-war levels.
Iran is attempting to expand its influence in the strait by negotiating new shipping routes with Oman. It has also set conditions for normalizing traffic, including the cessation of U.S. military actions and the lifting of maritime blockades.
Increasing military pressure from the U.S. is also becoming more challenging. With over five months of ongoing conflict raising concerns about the stockpiles of key air defense and precision-guided munitions, any attempt to seize control of the Hormuz Strait could further escalate the situation.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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