The hardline leadership in Iran is reportedly increasing missile and drone production and strengthening the authority of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in preparation for a prolonged conflict and potential escalation, amid distrust of U.S. peace negotiations.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on August 16, citing Iranian and Arab officials, that the hardline leadership has been reorganizing military and security agencies and enhancing offensive capabilities over the past two months in anticipation of an expanded war.
Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran on June 17 by President Donald Trump, the U.S. initiated follow-up negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and achieving a ceasefire. However, the Iranian hardliners suspect that the U.S. and Israel are using the negotiations to alleviate pressure on the global economy and buy time for larger future attacks, according to the WSJ.
In response, Iran has prepared for an escalation of conflict separate from the negotiations. The IRGC has reinforced its control over regular military forces and appointed hardliners experienced in the Iran-Iraq War and past domestic protests to key military and security positions. They have also accelerated missile and drone production while expanding intelligence activities.
Arab intelligence agencies have intercepted communications between Iran and pro-Iran armed groups in Yemen and Iraq, indicating a strategic shift. Analysts suggest that Iran is preparing its military capabilities to increase the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies in the event of an expanded conflict.
The IRGC is said to have sent commanders to areas controlled by the Houthi rebels in Yemen to discuss strategies for pressuring Saudi Arabia in coordination with pro-Iran militias in Iraq. Reports indicate that missile and naval weaponry, as well as drone launchers, have been positioned near the Red Sea, and intelligence on targets including Saudi ports and energy facilities has been provided to the Houthis.
Threats to Gulf nations have also intensified. According to the WSJ, the IRGC has warned that if the U.S. attacks Iranian energy facilities, it will destroy energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, providing specific target lists to Arab officials.
During the ceasefire period, the IRGC has accelerated its military buildup. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohammadi stated last month that they have made the most of the ceasefire period to enhance military capabilities, increase missile production speed, and improve accuracy.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has also expanded the IRGC's influence by reorganizing military and security agencies. Mohsen Rezaei, who led the IRGC during the Iran-Iraq War, has been appointed as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), and Ahmad Vahidi, who has effectively commanded the IRGC since March, has been officially appointed as the commander with a mandate to conduct 'strong offensive operations against the enemy.'
Reports indicate that the IRGC is also considering options for further escalation, including preemptive strikes, disrupting undersea internet cables in the Persian Gulf, inciting political instability in Kuwait and Bahrain, and even ground operations in Kuwait.
This hardline stance is affecting negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. According to mediators, Iranian diplomats agreed earlier this month to a phased reopening of the strait with Oman, but the IRGC intervened and resumed attacks on vessels.
As Iran remains steadfast in its escalation strategy, President Trump has reportedly shifted his approach to observe whether sanctions and U.S. naval blockades can change Iran's position.
Within Iran, some view the current negotiation phase as a temporary lull before another confrontation. Mehdi Mohammadi, a strategic advisor to chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, recently described the negotiation deadlock as 'the calm before the storm,' stating, 'Iran is preparing for a major confrontation.'
Defense expert Mohammad Hassan Santarasi, close to the Iranian government, noted that there is a widespread belief within Iran that a full-scale war has not yet begun, interpreting the previous conflicts as a 'salami tactic' aimed at gradually weakening the opponent's capabilities before a larger confrontation.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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