Reports indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November, raising the possibility of renewed U.S.-North Korea dialogue.
However, the negotiation environment for North Korea has significantly changed since the first U.S.-North Korea summit in 2018, which focused on denuclearization. North Korea has advanced its nuclear and missile capabilities and strengthened ties with Russia and China, reducing its reliance on the U.S. for sanctions relief or economic support.
Despite this, The Diplomat reported on August 18 that there are substantial strategic benefits for North Korea in meeting with the U.S., providing Kim with sufficient motivation to engage with Trump.
First, there is the recognition of North Korea's status as a nuclear power. North Korea has consistently stated that it will not engage in negotiations based on denuclearization and insists that the U.S. must acknowledge its nuclear capabilities to facilitate dialogue. Trump has referred to North Korea as a 'nuclear power' on multiple occasions.
While the U.S. does not officially recognize North Korea as a nuclear state, the prospect of a summit with Trump, who may negotiate based on the reality of North Korea's nuclear arsenal, could effectively grant North Korea de facto recognition of its nuclear status.
Additionally, Trump has signaled a willingness to reduce the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises, which North Korea has long criticized as 'invasion rehearsals.' The Diplomat noted that scaling back military drills holds significant strategic importance for North Korea, as adjustments to the size and role of U.S. forces in South Korea could provide Kim with considerable security benefits.
Trump has emphasized his personal rapport with Kim, having met him three times in Singapore in June 2018, Hanoi in February 2019, and at the DMZ in June 2019. For Kim, restoring communication with Trump through a fourth summit could mitigate perceived military threats, particularly in light of U.S. military operations targeting North Korean leadership.
Moreover, improving U.S.-North Korea relations could enhance North Korea's diplomatic autonomy in its dealings with China.
However, it is anticipated that China will seek to ensure its interests and influence are adequately represented in any U.S.-North Korea summit. Observers suggest that North Korea and China may coordinate strategically to extract maximum concessions from the U.S., potentially aligning their interests regarding U.S. military activities not only on the Korean Peninsula but also in the Taiwan Strait.
North Korea faces increased external pressures due to military support and troop deployments to Russia. Analysts suggest that if Kim can achieve strategic outcomes such as recognition of nuclear status, improved U.S.-North Korea relations, and a reduction of U.S. forces in South Korea through a summit with Trump, he could bolster his domestic political legitimacy and authority by portraying himself as a 'strategic genius.'
Meanwhile, if Trump engages in direct negotiations with North Korea without involving South Korea, concerns about 'Korea passing' may intensify. North Korea has effectively designated South Korea as a separate adversary since 2024 and has not responded to dialogue proposals from the South, raising the possibility of a rift in U.S.-South Korea coordination on North Korea policy.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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