The government has increased its forecast for peak power demand in 2040 by approximately 20% to account for large-scale new investments in semiconductor clusters and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. This increase is equivalent to the capacity of 19 large nuclear power plants, each with a capacity of 1.4 GW.
The Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment and the 12th Basic Power Supply Plan (Electricity Basic Plan) Committee revealed the revised power demand forecast during the fifth public policy forum held at the National Assembly on August 20. The forecast indicates a target peak power demand of 158.4 GW under the baseline scenario and 165.0 GW under the upward scenario.
This represents an increase of 26.6 to 26.8 GW compared to the previous estimate of 131.8 to 138.2 GW presented in April. The growth rates are 20.2% for the baseline scenario and 19.4% for the upward scenario.
According to Professor Choi Yong-ok, who leads the demand planning subcommittee, the target electricity consumption for 2040 is projected at 847.3 TWh under the baseline scenario and 885.1 TWh under the upward scenario, which assumes higher economic growth and electrification rates.
“The key point of this revision is not that we have increased the demand by assuming a higher economic growth rate,” Professor Choi stated. “Most of the increase can be explained by the large-scale new investment plans for semiconductors and AI data centers that have been solidified since the end of June.”
The demand planning subcommittee has accounted for only the new incremental demand arising from investments in semiconductors and data centers, excluding the growth trends already included in the model demand based on economic growth rates.
The additional electricity consumption from advanced industries, including semiconductors, is projected at 170.5 TWh under the baseline scenario and 168.5 TWh under the upward scenario for 2040. The additional peak power demand is expected to be 24.6 GW and 24.3 GW, respectively. This marks a significant increase from the previous forecast of 27.4 to 29.3 TWh in additional electricity consumption and 3.7 to 4.0 GW in additional peak power.
This increase reflects the recent solidified corporate investment plans, including the early completion of the Yongin semiconductor cluster, the establishment of a new cluster in the Honam region, and expansions of fabs in Pyeongtaek and Cheongju. Of the approximately 40 GW of potential demand based on contract power proposed by companies for 2040, 36.8 GW has been prioritized in this forecast.
The additional electricity consumption from data centers is projected at 84.9 TWh, with a peak power demand of 11.9 GW for 2040. This is approximately three times larger than the previous estimates of 26.5 TWh and 4.0 GW made in April. This increase reflects the expansion of mid- to long-term graphics processing unit (GPU) distribution and the solidified corporate investment plans following mega projects.
However, the investment plans for data centers have been gradually incorporated due to market uncertainties. Of the 20.8 GW of contract power proposed by companies, only the first phase of 10.8 GW, which is more concrete, has been included in this electricity basic plan, while the second phase of 10 GW will be reviewed in the next electricity basic plan based on project progress.
The combined baseline demand for 2040, including model demand, additional demand from semiconductors and data centers, and electrification demand, is expected to reach 986.3 to 1026.6 TWh. The peak power baseline demand is projected at 179.2 to 186.4 GW.
The demand planning subcommittee has estimated the final target demand at 847.3 to 885.1 TWh, assuming a reduction in electricity consumption of 139.0 to 141.5 TWh through demand management measures such as the Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS). The peak power demand is also projected to be reduced by up to 21.3 GW through demand management and load shifting, resulting in a forecast of 158.4 to 165.0 GW.
Professor Choi emphasized, “If the power infrastructure is not prepared, investments in semiconductors and AI data centers may face disruptions. We need to identify the likely demand in advance to prepare the generation and transmission infrastructure.”
This forecast is provisional, and the committee plans to refine the estimates based on feedback from the forum. This will help to specify the composition of power sources, power grids, and energy storage systems (ESS) needed by 2040.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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