Typhoon SAUDEL (No. 18) is rapidly intensifying as it moves over warm tropical waters.
According to major meteorological agencies, including the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Typhoon SAUDEL is currently moving northwest at about 20 km/h southeast of Guam. Although it is currently classified as a small typhoon with wind speeds of 20 m/s, it is expected to develop into a powerful typhoon with a central pressure of 935 hPa and maximum wind speeds of 49 m/s (176 km/h) as it passes through waters with temperatures above 29 degrees Celsius.
Forecast models from South Korea, Japan, and China show significant differences regarding the typhoon's future path.
The KMA has set its official forecast path to monitor the typhoon until it reaches the waters southeast of Okinawa early next week. The agency notes that the typhoon's intensity and movement speed are highly variable, making it too early to determine whether it will directly impact the Korean Peninsula. However, the edge of the North Pacific High, which previously blocked the typhoon's entry, is showing signs of weakening and shifting, raising the possibility that a path for the typhoon could open toward the southern or western waters of the Korean Peninsula.
The JMA has heightened its alert, predicting a high likelihood of direct impact on Okinawa and the Sakishima Islands. Based on analyses from the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) and other numerical models, the JMA is considering scenarios where the typhoon could change direction northeast after passing Okinawa, potentially striking the Japanese mainland near Hamamatsu or crossing the western waters of Japan. In this case, the eastern and southern coasts of the Korean Peninsula could also experience indirect effects, including strong winds and high waves.
Conversely, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models suggest that the typhoon may shift slightly westward during its northward movement, potentially making landfall along the coasts of Shanghai or Ningbo. Even if the typhoon weakens to a tropical depression upon reaching the Chinese coast, it could still bring a significant influx of tropical moisture to the Korean Peninsula, leading to heavy rain in the western and central regions.
Regardless of its path, Typhoon SAUDEL is expected to significantly influence the weather patterns over the Korean Peninsula.
The most notable impact will be the continuation of late summer heat, persisting even after the solar term known as Chuseok. The combination of hot, humid air from the typhoon's front and southerly winds from the North Pacific High is expected to raise daytime temperatures to around 33 degrees Celsius across most regions, with tropical nights continuing.
Additionally, preparations for localized heavy rain are urgent. The strong moisture pushed up by the typhoon is expected to collide with cooler air over the Korean Peninsula, leading to extreme atmospheric instability. As a result, there is a high likelihood of sudden downpours accompanied by gusty winds and thunderstorms, with rainfall rates exceeding 30-50 mm per hour in various inland areas. Coastal areas may also experience sporadic waves and swells that could breach breakwaters and coastal roads, necessitating heightened safety measures for vacationers and facility management.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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