As the application period for early admissions in 2027 approaches, significant shifts in the college admissions landscape are becoming evident. The intense focus on Seoul-based universities has begun to wane, with application rates for regional national universities rising for the third consecutive year.
This year marks the introduction of the 'local medical program,' which is emerging as a strategic alternative for students aiming for medical fields such as pharmacy, dentistry, and veterinary medicine, rather than being exclusive to top-ranking students. Additionally, with the largest influx of repeat test takers in history ahead of the 2028 college admissions reform, the trend of students applying for both stable options and ambitious targets is intensifying.
According to an analysis released by JinHakSa on August 21, the preference for regional national universities among non-capital area students has become increasingly pronounced.
The proportion of applications to regional national universities, including key national institutions, has steadily increased from 18.2% in 2025 to 19.9% in 2026, and is projected to reach 21.6% in 2027. Notably, in six of the eight non-capital regions, the percentage of applications to Seoul universities has dropped below 50%. In the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions, over 75% of students applied to local universities.
In the Gangwon region, while applications to Seoul universities (57.4%) exceeded those to local universities (47.6%) in 2026, the trend reversed in 2027, with local university applications at 57.0% compared to 54.8% for Seoul.
Woo Yeon-cheol, head of JinHakSa's admissions strategy research center, noted, "The severe job market, high living costs in the capital, the impact of last year's difficult exams, and recent discussions about free tuition at regional national universities and the integration of one university per province have all contributed to this trend. In particular, the integration of Kangwon National University with Gangneung-Wonju National University has positively influenced application rates."
Local Medical Program Introduced: A Strategic Advantage for Pharmacy and Veterinary Students
The newly introduced local medical program is emerging as a new variable in medical school admissions. According to JinHakSa's analysis, the average academic performance of applicants to the local medical program is around 1.50 for the academic record-based admissions and 1.52 for the comprehensive admissions. These figures are slightly lower than those for general medical schools (1.27 for both types).
Notably, the pattern of simultaneous applications among candidates is significant. While 70% of applicants to existing regional talent programs applied to other medical schools, only 58% of local medical program applicants did the same. Conversely, over 30% of these applicants also applied to other medical fields such as dentistry, traditional medicine, pharmacy, and veterinary medicine, with a notable 10.0% applying to pharmacy programs. The proportion of applicants applying to top engineering schools like Sogang University, Sungkyunkwan University, and Hanyang University was nearly double for local medical program applicants (7.1%) compared to regional talent program applicants (3.8%).
Woo explained, "Due to the 10-year mandatory service requirement, top-ranking students are likely to choose existing regional talent programs or general medical schools, while those preparing for pharmacy, veterinary, or top engineering schools are using the local medical program as a strategic alternative to aim for medical school acceptance." He cautioned, however, that with only 1-2 spots available per region, even meeting the minimum exam requirements may not guarantee acceptance, making it difficult to expect significant drops in cutoff scores.
Decline in High School Seniors and Record Number of Repeat Test Takers: Increasing Application Polarization
The composition of applicants has shown a marked decline in high school seniors and a significant increase in repeat test takers. Among users of JinHakSa's early admissions simulation, the number of high school seniors dropped by 28.5% compared to the previous year, while the number of repeat test takers increased by 6.4%, reaching a record 28.1% of total applicants. It is projected that the total number of repeat test takers will exceed 170,000 this year.
This demographic shift has led to extreme polarization in application tendencies. Contrary to initial predictions that 'stable applications' would dominate as students sought to avoid repeating the year ahead of the 2028 admissions reform, the proportion of 'appropriate' applications among the 30 Seoul universities remained similar to the previous year at 49.9%. However, the percentage of 'confident' applications plummeted from 31.4% to 20.4%. In contrast, the share of extremely ambitious applications, categorized as 'very risky,' surged from 10.4% to 19.6%.
Woo noted, "Repeat test takers targeting regular admissions are boldly applying to ambitious options through comprehensive or essay-based admissions. High school seniors are also adopting a mindset of securing one or two stable universities while betting on top-tier institutions, leading to a prevalent risk-taking mentality."
The Ripple Effect of 'Social Studies Run' and the Trap of Minimum Exam Requirements: Rising Cutoff Scores Demand Caution
The trend of natural science students taking social studies, referred to as 'Social Studies Run,' poses a significant challenge for meeting minimum exam requirements in early admissions. The percentage of students taking social studies in the June mock exam skyrocketed from 47.7% for the 2024 academic year to 69.0% for 2027.
Woo warned, "The influx of natural science students into social studies has made it extremely difficult for humanities students to secure grades of 1-2. Meanwhile, natural science students who choose social studies may overestimate their chances of acceptance based on mock exam percentiles, leading to risky upward applications in early admissions."
He also advised that even top students remaining in the natural sciences should be cautious, as the extreme standardization of the applicant pool means that even minor mistakes can lead to grade drops. All students, regardless of their field, should assess their chances of meeting minimum exam requirements very conservatively.
Meanwhile, the strength of semiconductor contract programs is unparalleled. The semiconductor engineering programs at Sogang University and Hanyang University have risen to the top in terms of applicant performance for the 2026-2027 academic years, moving up from outside the top 10 in 2025.
Woo emphasized, "In the past, students would mix general engineering programs with semiconductor programs, but this year, many are focusing on applying to four semiconductor contract programs among their six early admissions choices. As the overall performance of applicants to top universities continues to rise, it is crucial not to become fixated on last year's admission thresholds but to develop a conservative and multifaceted strategy."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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