On the 34th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, trade and people-to-people exchanges are showing signs of recovery. However, analysts indicate that the strategic competition between the U.S. and China, along with the security focus on economic and technological issues, is preventing a full restoration of relations to previous levels.
China's Observer Network published an article titled "Why is There a 'Temperature Difference' in China-Korea Relations After 34 Years of Diplomatic Ties?" which assessed the current state of bilateral relations.
The report noted that the nature of the China-Korea economic relationship has changed significantly. While the overall trade volume remains stable, there are clear shifts in industrial structure.
Specifically, the relationship is evolving from a vertical division of labor to a new model where industrial networks move in both upstream and downstream directions. Zhang Debin, director of the Korea Research Institute at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, stated, "A balanced economic relationship is beneficial for both countries, but this change is constrained by political factors and structural limitations."
The most significant external factor constraining China-Korea relations is the United States. Zhang pointed out, "The U.S.-China strategic competition is putting significant pressure on South Korea," adding that South Korea's policy choices in security, economy, and technology are increasingly leaning toward the U.S., a trend evident across both liberal and conservative administrations. He argued that this situation limits South Korea's ability to improve relations with China.
He specifically highlighted the 'securitization' of economic and technological issues as problematic. "In the past, China and South Korea had a vertical division of labor, but now they are transitioning to horizontal cooperation, with the biggest obstacle being the excessive securitization of economic and technological matters," he said. Zhang claimed that U.S. pressure is restricting cooperation between the two countries in advanced technology fields such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
The article regarded President Lee Jae-myung's visit to China in January as a significant signal for the recovery of China-Korea relations. However, it noted that this improvement does not equate to complete normalization.
Zhang assessed, "Political trust, economic cooperation, and people-to-people and cultural exchanges have not returned to their previous normal levels."
While people-to-people exchanges between the two countries are recovering rapidly, this has not translated into a more positive perception of each other, particularly in South Korea's view of China, according to Zhang.
Nonetheless, there is hope that the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen in November could further advance bilateral relations.
The Observer Network predicted that the China-Korea summit at the Shenzhen APEC meeting could serve as both an opportunity and a test for the two countries. It emphasized the importance of whether they can find new areas for economic cooperation, restore mutual political trust, and narrow the perception gap between their peoples.
Meanwhile, other Chinese media have noted that economic and people-to-people exchanges between China and South Korea are expanding into new areas. The China Securities Journal recently reported that the economic and trade relationship is extending beyond semiconductors and manufacturing to include aviation, tourism, and cultural heritage.
Despite ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition and supply chain restructuring, analysis suggests that the interdependence of the two countries' industries is deepening. Wang Lingyi, a researcher at the Shanghai International Economic Exchange Center, stated, "The interdependence of the China-Korea supply chain, centered on semiconductors and manufacturing, is expanding into aviation, tourism, and cultural exchanges, further deepening the integration of the two countries' economic relations."
On the same day, the state-run China Daily published an interview with Shin Jung-seung, the former South Korean ambassador to China, who played a key role in the establishment of diplomatic relations. He expressed optimism that the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen would provide a boost to China-Korea relations and contribute to peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region through close cooperation between the two countries.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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