AJP Asia Intelligence Agency

China Gains from US-Canada Trade War, Aiming for Strategic Victory

China is seeking to capitalize on the diplomatic and economic benefits arising from the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada. As the US imposes tariffs even on its allies, China is positioning itself as a 'defender of free trade' and accelerating trade relations with Canada and other countries.


Canada Responds to US Tariffs with Strong Measures, Expands Economic Cooperation with China


Starting September 8, Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs on approximately 700 US products worth CAD 27.6 billion (about USD 20 billion), responding firmly to US tariffs. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared, "We are at war with the United States." This makes Canada the second country, after China, to retaliate against US tariffs.


China has welcomed Canada's countermeasures. The state-run Global Times described Canada's response as a 'Chinese-style counterattack,' asserting that it not only protects national interests but also upholds the stability of global supply chains and the fairness of international trade.


In fact, Canada has been strengthening its trade relations with China in anticipation of US tariff pressures. Earlier this year, Carney visited China for the first time in nine years as Prime Minister, paving the way for improved bilateral relations. The relationship had cooled after Canada arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018 at the request of the US. However, the recent US tariff pressures have prompted a thaw in relations. There are also rumors that Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Canada next month, marking the first visit by a Chinese head of state in about 16 years.


Amid this reconciliation, China has reopened its markets to Canadian canola, beef, and lobster imports this year. Canada has also agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and apply the most-favored-nation tariff rate to an annual quota of 49,000 electric vehicles, enhancing economic cooperation between the two nations. The Washington Post noted, "Given the intensifying US tariff pressures, this deal appears to have been prescient."


The US has strongly opposed Canada's expansion of trade with China. On August 24, US Vice President J.D. Vance criticized Canada during a visit to Maine, stating, "It makes no sense that Canada favors products from China over those produced in Maine."


As the US-Canada trade war deepens, analyses suggest that China is benefiting. Zhu Yuan, a senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, told the Washington Post, "We are literally giving up our global leadership. China doesn't have to do anything to gain from this situation."


China Expands Trade Beyond Canada, Positions Itself as a 'Defender of Free Trade'


China is not only focusing on Canada but is also accelerating trade relations with other countries. On August 21, China agreed to revise its free trade agreement with Switzerland and, earlier in May, eliminated tariffs on goods from all but one African country.


China is also working to improve its relationship with India, which had cooled following border clashes.


Ali Wine, a senior researcher at the International Crisis Group, told the Washington Post, "China aims to position itself as a stable counterbalance to a capricious superpower that imposes sudden tariffs on its allies and partners."


China is actively promoting this trend as a diplomatic and economic achievement. The state-run Global Times commented on August 26 that amid the escalating trade dispute between the US and Canada, "China's approach to international cooperation, based on the principles of equality and mutual benefit, is becoming increasingly attractive." It noted that not only Canada but also several European Union member states, Australia, and ASEAN countries are seeking trade cooperation with China that aligns with their long-term interests.


However, it is important to note that China remains heavily reliant on the dollar-based global financial system and overseas markets, making it difficult to completely replace the US. The Washington Post analyzed that rather than overturning US financial and economic dominance overnight, China is benefiting from the US's own weakening of its global leadership.





* This article has been translated by AI.