The government has unveiled a plan to expand operational renewable energy capacity to 220 GW by 2040, nearly six times the 37 GW capacity recorded last year. This initiative aims to meet the surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and semiconductor mega-clusters while phasing out coal power by 2040.
The Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Environment and the 12th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand held the 6th public forum on August 26 at the Korea Electric Power Corporation's Southern Seoul headquarters, where they presented the renewable energy supply outlook. This outlook will be incorporated into the 12th Basic Plan after considering feedback from the forum and further review.
Operational renewable energy capacity is projected to increase from 37 GW in 2025 to 100 GW by 2030, 163 GW by 2035, and 220 GW by 2040. Compared to the 121.9 GW forecast in the 11th Basic Plan for 2038, this represents an increase of 98.1 GW. Additionally, self-installed solar power is expected to grow from 4.6 GW in 2024 to 8.1 GW by 2030, 11.9 GW by 2035, and 16.3 GW by 2040.
To achieve the 100 GW target by 2030, an additional 63 GW must be installed over the next five years, averaging 12.6 GW per year.
By 2040, solar power is expected to account for approximately 70% of the operational capacity at 155.3 GW. Onshore wind is projected at 15.5 GW, offshore wind at 45 GW, and other sources such as hydro and bioenergy at 4 GW.
The solar power forecast incorporates the easing of distance regulations and improvements in module efficiency. The ministry utilized geographic information systems to estimate the solar market potential at 271 GW by 2040. A diffusion model based on past installation performance suggested a capacity of 132 GW, but with the policy effects of easing distance regulations for rooftop installations and community participation projects, the forecast was raised to 155.3 GW, ahead of schedule by 3.6 years.
Offshore wind capacity is expected to expand from the current 0.4 GW to 3.1 GW by 2030, 25 GW by 2035, and 45 GW by 2040, representing a more than 100-fold increase. This projection assumes that 24.6 GW of existing project permits will be realized and that 20 GW of government-led planned sites will be completed. The government plans to begin bidding for planned sites in 2029 and will enhance infrastructure such as ports and dedicated installation vessels to supply 4 GW annually starting in 2036.
Onshore wind capacity is calculated based on the current installed capacity of 2.1 GW, existing permitted projects of 8.1 GW, an anticipated 5 GW of new permits, and 0.3 GW from repowering old facilities. The self-installed solar power figure was determined based on the cumulative installation trend of 4.6 GW as of 2024.
The expansion of renewable energy is a response to the rapidly increasing electricity demand. The power supply planning committee previously revised the maximum power demand forecast for 2040 to 165 GW. Additional demand of 20.6 GW is expected from advanced industries such as semiconductors and 7.9 GW from data centers, making it urgent for export companies to secure carbon-free power to comply with RE100 commitments.
The ministry plans to reflect the proposed legislative changes to ease the road distance limit for solar power from 100 meters to 0 meters in the 13th Basic Plan, as recalibrating this will require significant time. Feedback from this forum will also be reviewed for additional incorporation into the 12th Basic Plan.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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