Could a fourth summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un take place? The upcoming U.S.-China summit in Washington on September 24 may determine that direction. Notably, China is taking a more active role in facilitating dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea compared to the past.
The South China Morning Post reported on September 10 that China is exploring ways to play a 'proactive and constructive role' in reviving diplomacy between the U.S. and North Korea. It was also noted that China would support any credible efforts to resume talks, although specific measures have not been disclosed.
On September 15, French intelligence and diplomacy outlet Intelligence Online reported that the Chinese Communist Party is preparing multiple scenarios for hosting a summit between Trump and Kim in four different cities, including locations within North Korea. The report suggests that China aims to position itself as the de facto mediator connecting Washington and Pyongyang ahead of Xi Jinping's visit to the U.S.
Xi Jinping: The Sole Mediator for US-North Korea Talks
For China, the resumption of U.S.-North Korea dialogue is not a bad option. If the U.S. and North Korea begin talks, military tensions on the Korean Peninsula could decrease, aligning with China's emphasis on peace and stability in the region. Additionally, China seeks to prevent a scenario where the U.S. and North Korea negotiate independently, thereby expanding its influence over the Korean Peninsula issue. This is particularly significant given the strengthening ties between North Korea and Russia, as China's role as a mediator could reaffirm its influence over North Korea.
Xi Jinping is uniquely positioned to promote a U.S.-North Korea summit. He visited Pyongyang for a meeting with Kim on June 8-9, where he emphasized the need for strategic coordination and cooperation while safeguarding each country's sovereignty, security, and development interests. The focus of the June summit was more on strengthening the strategic relationship between China and North Korea rather than on denuclearization.
As a result, it is conceivable that during the September 24 U.S.-China summit, Xi could convey Kim's demands to President Trump. Xi might confirm North Korea's willingness to engage in dialogue and relay that to Trump. Conversely, he could also communicate to Kim the measures the U.S. is willing to offer and the desired outcomes of negotiations. Beyond merely relaying positions, China could play a role in lowering the demands of both sides.
China Prefers Shenzhen as the Venue
The location of the talks could also be a significant factor showcasing China's role. One of the proposed venues is Shenzhen, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit will be held in November. While Trump's attendance at APEC has not been officially confirmed, the Kremlin indicated on September 1 that discussions are underway regarding a potential trilateral meeting involving Trump, Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
If the U.S.-North Korea summit were to take place in Shenzhen, it would represent an ideal scenario for China, as it would facilitate the meeting while showcasing China's diplomatic presence in the Korean Peninsula issue. However, from Trump's perspective, a summit in Shenzhen may not yield the expected political benefits, leading to speculation about alternative locations.
Former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun suggested that Trump might consider meeting Kim after the APEC summit in Shenzhen, stating, 'It would not be surprising if Trump proposed such a meeting in Pyongyang.'
Even if specific dates for a U.S.-North Korea summit are not announced during the September 24 U.S.-China summit, an exchange of views on North Korea could serve as a starting point for subsequent negotiations. If the North Korea issue is highlighted as a separate agenda during the U.S.-China summit, the diplomatic stage surrounding the U.S.-North Korea summit could expand beyond Washington and Pyongyang to include Beijing.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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