European intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may engage in provocations to test NATO's resolve within the coming months. However, assessments regarding the immediacy of a Russian attack vary.
Possible NATO member incursions within months; testing collective defense
The Guardian reported on September 20, based on interviews with three European intelligence leaders, that Russia is likely to increase drone attacks and may conduct small-scale incursions into NATO member territories bordering Russia.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), mentioned that these actions could include limited invasions, deceptive provocations, and extensive propaganda campaigns, warning that such scenarios could unfold in “months, not years.”
On the other hand, Normunds Mezitis, head of Latvia's State Security Service (VDD), expressed caution regarding the likelihood of an imminent attack, stating, “There are no signs of an impending attack.” He noted, however, that there are indications Russia is preparing for bolder actions in Europe, though it remains unclear whether this is part of an actual attack plan or a strategy to destabilize European society.
Recently, European leaders have echoed intelligence assessments, warning of the possibility of Russian provocations against NATO member states.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, speaking in parliament on September 17, highlighted the potential for Russian drone missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine, stating, “This is an attempt by Russia to test whether NATO's collective defense commitment (Article 5) is operational.”
NATO's Article 5 stipulates that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, obligating member states to support the attacked nation.
French President Emmanuel Macron supported Tusk's warning, stating it was “well-founded.” On September 18, he convened presidential candidates and party leaders in Paris to discuss intelligence regarding the increasing threats from Russia.
Increased sabotage targeting infrastructure and defense facilities supporting Ukraine
The backdrop to European concerns about potential Russian attacks includes the 2022 Ukraine War. At that time, U.S. intelligence agencies repeatedly warned that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine, a claim the Russian government consistently denied.
Russia has argued that the provision of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine by Western nations equates to participation in the war, suggesting these countries could become targets. However, to date, there have been no direct attacks that would trigger NATO's Article 5.
Instead, there are ongoing concerns that Russia is conducting sabotage operations against countries supporting Ukraine. The Guardian reported that all three intelligence leaders interviewed believe that Russian sabotage activities in Europe are likely to intensify in the coming months.
Mezitis specifically noted that the targets of Russian sabotage have shifted from random attacks intended to instill fear to infrastructure related to supporting Ukraine. Recent analyses indicate that defense industry facilities have also become targets, following earlier attacks on railways and infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
Major Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish military intelligence, assessed that Russian sabotage aims to weaken European support for Ukraine, create divisions among NATO members, and instill fear among Europeans. He suggested that Russia would prefer ongoing debates within NATO without any actual responses.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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