Attention is focused on how the South Korean military will respond if North Korea is confirmed to be responsible for a mine explosion in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Experts suggest that enhancing psychological operations, including loudspeaker broadcasts directed at the North, could be an effective means of pressure, but they also believe the current government's policy of restraint makes such actions unlikely.
According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, two South Korean military officers were seriously injured on September 21 while conducting a search operation south of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) in the western front. The injured personnel are currently receiving treatment at the National Medical Center and are not in life-threatening condition.
The operation was part of preparations for a field investigation by the United Nations Command. The military had previously identified changes in the terrain near the MDL and requested a site investigation from the UN Command, which was scheduled for early next week. The troops were using mine detectors to clear a search route when the incident occurred.
If the explosion is confirmed to be due to North Korea's deliberate placement of mines, it will draw comparisons to the 2015 Mokham mine incident. On August 4 of that year, a mine planted by North Korean forces exploded, injuring two South Korean soldiers, prompting the military to resume loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North for the first time in 11 years on August 10.
Security experts believe that if the cause of the recent explosion is confirmed to be North Korean mine placement, enhancing psychological operations, including loudspeaker broadcasts, could be an effective response. However, they view the likelihood of the government implementing such measures as low.
Yang Wook, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, stated, "If it is confirmed that North Korea is responsible, we need to monitor all North Korean military activities near the DMZ. While enhancing psychological operations is a very effective card, the government's current policy aims to avoid conflict with the North, making resumption unlikely."
Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum (KODEF), also predicted a low likelihood of resuming psychological operations. He noted, "There is a significant difference between whether the mine was lost or recently planted as a provocation, and the military's response may vary depending on the circumstances of the incident."
The military's response will depend on how clearly the type of mine and the circumstances of its placement or loss are determined. The injured personnel were wearing protective gear, including mine boots, but one officer suffered a severe injury resulting in the amputation of an ankle. This raises the possibility that the mine may have been of North Korean origin based on the extent of the injuries and the estimated amount of explosives involved.
However, even if confirmed as a North Korean mine, the circumstances under which it ended up at the site need to be clarified. Whether it was lost and drifted there or if North Korean forces deliberately created a minefield south of the MDL will affect the response. Experts believe this uncertainty will complicate the military's response. Nonetheless, if North Korea's deliberate provocation is confirmed, the government may find it difficult to avoid a response. Shin assessed, "The military's non-response to North Korean provocations could carry significant political burdens."
In response, the military plans to secure safety and confirm the accident site in collaboration with the UN Command, investigating the exact cause and circumstances of the explosion. Considering that the investigation into the Mokham mine incident took six days, it is expected that results from this investigation will take about a week to emerge.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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