In October 2018, a campaign rally in Richmond, Kentucky, showcased President Trump's influence. Ralph Alvarado, a state senator who opened the event, praised the president's numerous achievements as "remarkable." Senator Rand Paul, known for his libertarian views, stated that Trump "exceeds my expectations almost daily." Congressman Andy Barr, who appeared to support Trump, called him "a doer, a results-oriented person," prompting cheers from thousands of MAGA supporters.
However, according to a report by The Atlantic, the scene in Kentucky is drastically different now, eight years later. Andy Barr, who is challenging for a Senate seat, and Ralph Alvarado, who seeks to inherit Barr's House seat, have quietly removed Trump's name from prominent positions on their campaign websites. Rand Paul has publicly clashed with the White House over the Iran war and rising national debt.
With just over a month until the November elections, warning signs for the Republican Party are evident. Various polls show Trump's approval rating has fallen to the low 30s, and he is losing ground to Democrats even in the economy, which was once his strongest asset. The burden of rising living costs, fuel prices, and grocery expenses, compounded by the prolonged Iran conflict, is weighing heavily on households. Republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump not out of change of heart, but out of necessity for survival. Politico recently reported that the White House has entered emergency response mode to support vulnerable Republican candidates.
Public Sentiment Reflected in Numbers
The shift in public sentiment is starkly illustrated by the numbers. A recent Reuters-Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped 3 percentage points in just one week to a historic low of 32%. More concerning is the defection of his base. Approval among Republican supporters fell from 91% shortly after his second inauguration to 86% in January, and recently plummeted from 82% to 73% in just a week. Within the Republican base, support for economic management has dropped 24 percentage points since the beginning of the year to 56%, while approval for handling living costs has decreased by 26 percentage points to 44%. Ipsos polling director Alex Tyson noted that these figures are unprecedented in recent weeks.
Surveys by CNN and SSRS indicate that this election is shaping up to be more challenging than in 2018. Trump's economic approval rating stands at 27%, a 22-point drop from eight years ago. Only 28% of respondents believe the economy is doing well, a staggering 41-point decline. Additionally, 44% of voters view this congressional election as a "message of opposition" to Trump, the highest figure for a sitting president's midterm election since the Bush administration. Only 19% responded that it is a message of support. A Quinnipiac poll shows Democrats leading in the race for control of the House, 49% to 38%, an 11-point advantage. The fact that Democrats have gained ground on traditionally Republican issues like the economy encapsulates the nature of this election.
The Iran war has ignited these issues. As the conflict drags on, the national average price for gasoline has reached $4.50 per gallon. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), diesel prices have surged from $3.69 a year ago to $6.51. Midwestern farmers are feeling the pinch, and nearly every industry that relies on large trucks for transportation is under cost pressure. The anger over the economic hardships that led to Trump's return to the White House two years ago is now turning against him.
Republican strategist Bill F.B. O'Reilly expressed concern to The Hill, stating, "Many Republican supporters may not turn out to vote in November, while Democratic supporters are likely to show up in large numbers." He added, "Dissatisfaction with the Iran war strategy and soaring gas prices are dampening enthusiasm among the right, and we have only a month to turn this situation around."
Politico described the current White House as being in "triage mode," akin to an emergency room prioritizing patients. A proposal to ban diesel exports for 90 days is under consideration to control energy prices, despite opposition from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Treasury Secretary Scott Vest, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who argue it could raise gasoline and jet fuel prices. A plan to expand imports of foreign beef announced in August is also facing pushback from livestock farmers. The White House has dismissed both reports as "fake news," but it is clear that electoral logic is taking precedence over economic rationale.
Trump's Erratic Behavior
Typically, presidents simplify their messages ahead of midterm elections, emphasizing economic achievements and minimizing controversies to allow party candidates to focus on local issues. However, Trump is doing the opposite. His promise to give $5,000 to every adult citizen if Republicans maintain control of both chambers has drawn criticism even within the party as a vote-buying scheme. Sixty-six percent of registered voters deemed it inappropriate, while only 18% found it appropriate. He also joked that disaster relief would be cut if North Carolina elects a Democratic senator. Trump has claimed that the 2024 assassination attempt on Butler was a "Democratic conspiracy," despite the assailant, Thomas Crooks, being a registered Republican. On the same day, FBI Director Kathy Patel testified before Congress that there was no evidence to support such claims.
Trump's erratic behavior does not stop there. He has threatened to sever trade relations with all deficit countries if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates. He also threatened to shut down the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts if his name is not displayed prominently. Additionally, he claimed he would deploy drones and snipers across the 250-foot memorial arch at Arlington National Cemetery. Ultimately, he has barred CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from White House press access, fostering distrust among voters regarding his leadership.
Of course, this behavior serves a political function. Trump creates controversy to dominate media narratives and gives supporters the impression that he is fighting against the establishment. Legal and political crises can also serve to rally his base. By rejecting the language of a typical president, he has maintained an identity as a "leader who does not succumb to normal politics."
However, the current conditions differ from the past. Trump in 2016 and 2024 was a challenger promising change to angry voters. Now, he is the sitting president responsible for inflation, war, tariffs, and fuel costs. While chaos can be a force that disrupts the status quo for an opposition party, it becomes a sign of incompetence for those in power. The likelihood that Trump's erratic behavior will translate into political gains appears very limited.
Shaking the Senate... 'Defensive Battle in the Stronghold'
The battlefield is extending beyond the House to the Senate. For Democrats to reclaim the Senate, they need to flip four seats. North Carolina is seen as a key target. In this state, where Trump has won three times, Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC) whom Trump endorsed, is trailing against Roy Cooper, a former governor who has never lost an election. In Georgia, Congressman Mike Collins is struggling against incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff. Republican strategist Karl Rove has asserted that the party will not win either of these races. The pro-Republican super PAC, Old North Action, has reduced its ad reservations in North Carolina by about one-third.
Accountability within the Republican Party is also directed at Trump. Senator John Cornyn of Texas stated that if Tom Tillis were running in North Carolina, the situation would be significantly different, blaming Trump for effectively pushing him out and leaving a lesser-known candidate struggling. Cornyn himself lost a primary to Ken Paxton, who is now in a tight race against Democrat James Talarico in Texas. The Republican Party is pouring over $100 million into defending Texas. Polls show Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Dan Sullivan in Alaska trailing outside the margin of error. These are states where Trump won by double digits in 2024. As Senate Minority Leader John Thune put it, the Republican Party is currently building a "massive wall" around its candidates.
However, the outcome is not yet determined. Republican strategist Ford O'Connell believes that the effects of redistricting in several states have not been fully reflected in the polls. He argues that the Senate can be defended, and the House may only lose by a narrow margin, allowing for the status quo to be maintained. The Democratic Congress is also as unpopular as the Republican Congress. Public opinion is divided on whether life will improve if Democrats win. Emory University professor Alan Abramowitz pointed out that there have been exceptions to the rule of presidential approval ratings, such as during the economic boom of 1998 and the post-9/11 rally in 2002. However, with Democratic voting intentions currently 16 percentage points higher than Republicans, the Republican Party does not appear to have a visible "exception" to rely on.
The Moment They Lose the House
The aftermath of the election could be even more intense. Losing the House would effectively halt legislative agendas. Additional tax cuts, immigration policies, budgets, and administrative reorganizations would be difficult to pursue without Democratic consent. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has vowed to hold "fraudsters" accountable for stealing Americans' money. The blueprint is already in place. Jamie Raskin, likely to chair the Judiciary Committee, has identified "structural corruption" that has caused significant public losses as a top priority. Robert Garcia of the Oversight Committee has outlined five key issues, including investigations into the Trump family's business dealings, the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, and operations by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Gregory Meeks of the Foreign Affairs Committee is focusing on the Iran war and operations in Venezuela, while Jared Huffman of the Natural Resources Committee is targeting "vanity projects" like the demolition of the White House East Wing and the memorial arch. Recent revelations that some of the costs for Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding were covered by a Kremlin-connected Russian oligarch could ignite new controversies.
The impeachment card is also on the table. Jeffries has stated that nothing is off the table and nothing is confirmed. However, a third impeachment would face the hurdle of needing a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which may not have the same shock value for Trump, who has already endured two impeachments. Instead, cabinet members may become more realistic targets. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already faced impeachment articles from Republican Thomas Massie over his handling of the Iran war.
If Democrats reclaim the Senate, the shock would be even greater. The Senate has the power to confirm cabinet members, ambassadors, and federal judges. Trump's ability to place loyalists in the government and judiciary could be severely restricted. Even if administration officials resign or are dismissed, it would be challenging to confirm successors, leaving the White House reliant on acting officials and legal controversies.
Where is Trump's Second Term Heading?
If defeat becomes a reality, Trump's second term could take one of three paths. First, legislative momentum would effectively halt, leading to greater reliance on executive orders and emergency powers. Tariffs and trade measures that bypass Congress, along with pressure on the Federal Reserve, would become primary tools of governance. Second, ongoing disputes over budgets and debt ceilings could lead to repeated government shutdown crises. Third, a president constrained domestically may seek to achieve foreign policy successes. The search for an exit from the Iran war could accelerate, but the costs are likely to be shifted onto allies. If the 2028 presidential race ignites early, a lame-duck scenario could emerge. Conversely, a cornered Trump may become more aggressive. His recent choice of erratic behavior over restraint ahead of the midterms may be a preview of what is to come.
This is a point of interest for our country as well. A stronger congressional check does not necessarily reduce uncertainty in foreign policy. A president with a stalled legislative agenda is more likely to cling to trade measures that can be enacted without congressional approval, becoming impatient for visible results. The volatility of tariffs and demands on allies could increase. We must consider how the division of power in Washington will impact negotiations at the table in Seoul.
On November 3, American voters will not just be electing 435 members of the House and one-third of the Senate. They will cast votes that will determine whether the remaining two years of Trump's second term will be characterized by "checked power" or remain as "unchecked power." The absence of the president's name from the campaign websites of Kentucky Republican candidates quietly indicates which direction the answer is leaning.
Lee Su-wan, Author's Major Career
▷ Reporter for The Korea Times ▷ Senior Correspondent for Reuters ▷ Editor at Reuters ▷ President of the Seoul Foreign Correspondents' Club ▷ Global Head of Ajou Economic News ▷ Editorial Writer for Ajou Economic News
* This article has been translated by AI.
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