The U.S. trade deficit has reached its largest level in 17 months, driven by a significant increase in imports of products related to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, including semiconductors. While AI investments are supporting the U.S. stock market and strengthening the dollar, they are also putting pressure on the trade balance and economic growth.
According to the International Financial Center, the U.S. trade balance recorded a deficit of $105.6 billion in August, the largest since March of last year. The surge in imports, particularly of AI infrastructure-related products, has been identified as a key factor contributing to the widening trade deficit.
Although large-scale investments centered around AI are emerging as a new growth driver for the U.S. economy, they are also increasing imports of foreign products, negatively impacting the trade balance in the short term. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for U.S. economic growth in the third quarter, lowering it from 3.4% to 3.1% to reflect the deteriorating trade balance.
In contrast, expectations surrounding AI investments continue to buoy U.S. asset prices in the financial markets. The International Financial Center noted that the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) is approaching 80% of the total assets of net creditor countries worldwide, indicating that the influx of global investment capital into the U.S. stock market is driving the strength of the dollar. Despite currency fluctuation risks, funds are still flowing into U.S. stocks.
The U.S. stock market has maintained its strength, particularly in AI-related stocks. On October 6, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.58% to close at 7,818.9. Analysts suggest that expectations for the performance of major AI-related companies are supporting the market, even as interest rates remain high.
The concern arises if expectations for AI investments begin to wane. In such a scenario, foreign investors may reduce their positions in U.S. stocks, potentially leading to a sell-off of the dollar, which could result in a simultaneous decline in both the stock market and the dollar. Typically, the dollar serves as a safe haven during financial market instability; however, if an AI bubble were to correct, the dollar might not be exempt from this trend.
Market observers note that while the current AI investment boom is likely to support growth and asset prices in the near term, the expanded trade deficit of $105.6 billion highlights the increasing costs associated with this investment surge. The speed at which the benefits of AI investments translate into productivity gains and corporate performance is expected to be a critical factor influencing future U.S. growth rates and dollar trends.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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