This year, rice production is projected to decline by 0.6% compared to last year. Although improved weather conditions have increased the yield per unit area, the overall production is expected to decrease for the fifth consecutive year due to a reduction in the area cultivated.
According to the National Data Agency's report on the expected rice production for 2026, the anticipated production is 3.518 million tons, down 21,000 tons (0.6%) from last year's 3.539 million tons.
Rice production has been on a downward trend since 2022. This year's production is the lowest since 2020, when it was 3.507 million tons.
The primary reason for the decrease in production is the reduction in the area cultivated. This year, the area for rice cultivation is 670,690 hectares, down 7,445 hectares (1.1%) from last year's 677,514 hectares. Government measures to promote appropriate rice production, such as the strategic crop payment system and the conversion of rice paddies to other crops, have influenced this reduction.
On the other hand, the expected yield per 10 ares of rice is projected to increase to 525 kilograms, up from 522 kilograms last year. This improvement in yield has partially offset the decrease in production due to the reduction in cultivated area.
Unlike last year, which saw significant damage from pests and diseases due to frequent rainfall, this year's weather conditions during the critical growth stages, including tillering and grain formation, have been favorable. Sufficient sunlight in September, when the rice grains mature, is expected to lead to a slight increase in yield per unit area.
The number of panicles per plant has increased from 22.1 last year to 22.2 this year, while the number of grains per panicle has risen from 85.8 to 86.4. The total sunlight hours from September 1 to 27 increased from 130.3 hours last year to 187.6 hours this year.
Regionally, the highest expected production is in Gwangju, Jeonnam, at 738,000 tons, followed by Chungnam at 689,000 tons and Jeonbuk at 533,000 tons.
This expected production estimate is based on a survey conducted from September 10 to 22, covering approximately 6,300 sample areas. The figures may change depending on weather conditions, and the final cultivated area and production figures will be announced on November 13.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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