서울 주택시장에서 아파트뿐 아니라 연립·단독주택의 매매가격과 전월세 가격까지 동반 상승하면서 고가 아파트 중심의 주택정책에서 벗어나야 한다는 지적이 나왔다. 정부의 부동산 세제 강화가 주택 매물 감소와 전월세시장 불안을 초래할 수 있는 만큼 민간 임대주택 공급 기반을 확충해야 한다는 제언도 제기됐다.
"서울 집값, 고가 아파트만의 문제 아냐"…비아파트·월세까지 상승
On October 8, during a seminar titled 'Where is the Korean Economy and Real Estate Policy Heading?' held at the National Assembly, Kim Deok-rye, a researcher at the Korea Housing Industry Institute, noted that the price increase in Seoul's housing market is spreading across various types of housing.
Kim stated, "Since 2024, prices for all types of housing in Seoul have been rising," adding that while rental prices were relatively stable in 2024, they have seen significant increases since the second half of last year, with this trend continuing into the current year.
He particularly highlighted the rapid rise in rental prices, explaining, "While there have been times in the past when sales prices or rental prices increased as much as they are now, it has been difficult to find instances of rental prices rising this quickly since the relevant statistics began in 2006."
The analysis also indicates a deepening polarization in prices based on region and housing type. In Seoul, not only apartment prices but also those of multi-family and single-family homes are rising, while in provincial areas, older apartments and multi-family homes continue to decline in price. In Gyeonggi Province, some areas like Seongnam and Gwangmyeong have seen apartment prices rise by over 20% in the past year, while other regions are experiencing price drops, widening the regional disparities.
Kim emphasized the need for increased new housing supply alongside management of the existing housing market. He pointed out, "Our country already has over 20 million housing units in stock," stressing the importance of examining both new supply and transactions in the existing housing market.
The decline in non-apartment supply was also identified as a major issue. Kim attributed the sharp decrease in non-apartment supply in Seoul since 2023 to regulations on construction and parking, as well as financial and tax policies. He noted that small villa projects require a different policy approach due to their distinct funding structures compared to apartment development projects.
He stated, "We now need to discuss in detail what types of housing are needed for which demographics in which regions," urging the creation of policies tailored to the characteristics of each area, distinguishing between regions with concentrated demand and those needing supply management.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Kim stated, "Since 2024, prices for all types of housing in Seoul have been rising," adding that while rental prices were relatively stable in 2024, they have seen significant increases since the second half of last year, with this trend continuing into the current year.
He particularly highlighted the rapid rise in rental prices, explaining, "While there have been times in the past when sales prices or rental prices increased as much as they are now, it has been difficult to find instances of rental prices rising this quickly since the relevant statistics began in 2006."
The analysis also indicates a deepening polarization in prices based on region and housing type. In Seoul, not only apartment prices but also those of multi-family and single-family homes are rising, while in provincial areas, older apartments and multi-family homes continue to decline in price. In Gyeonggi Province, some areas like Seongnam and Gwangmyeong have seen apartment prices rise by over 20% in the past year, while other regions are experiencing price drops, widening the regional disparities.
Kim emphasized the need for increased new housing supply alongside management of the existing housing market. He pointed out, "Our country already has over 20 million housing units in stock," stressing the importance of examining both new supply and transactions in the existing housing market.
The decline in non-apartment supply was also identified as a major issue. Kim attributed the sharp decrease in non-apartment supply in Seoul since 2023 to regulations on construction and parking, as well as financial and tax policies. He noted that small villa projects require a different policy approach due to their distinct funding structures compared to apartment development projects.
He stated, "We now need to discuss in detail what types of housing are needed for which demographics in which regions," urging the creation of policies tailored to the characteristics of each area, distinguishing between regions with concentrated demand and those needing supply management.
"보유세·양도세 동시 강화, 매물 잠김·전월세 불안 우려"
Continuing the discussion, Kim Je-kyung, head of Tumi Real Estate Consulting, warned that the government's real estate tax reform could lead to a decrease in housing supply and instability in the rental market.
Kim pointed out, "If both capital gains tax and property tax are increased simultaneously, homeowners may find themselves in a dilemma. Those who cannot decide to sell by a certain point may find it increasingly difficult to sell their homes due to the tax burden."
He also raised concerns about the direction of tax policy that simultaneously strengthens property and transaction taxes. He noted, "Countries with high property taxes tend to have low transaction taxes, and vice versa. However, we are moving towards increasing both capital gains and property taxes." He explained that if only capital gains tax increases, homeowners can delay selling, and if only property tax increases, they may decide to sell after managing the tax burden. However, increasing both taxes simultaneously limits homeowners' options.
Kim predicted that changes to the long-term holding tax exemption and increased burdens from comprehensive real estate taxes could influence the selling decisions of high-value single-home owners. He argued that setting limits on exemptions for capital gains and reducing tax credits for comprehensive real estate taxes could significantly increase the tax burden for long-term residents, especially elderly single-home owners.
He also raised the possibility of a balloon effect due to tax increases. Kim stated, "If the tax burden in high-end housing markets like Gangnam increases, demand may shift to surrounding areas with relatively lower burdens, stimulating price increases in mid- to low-priced housing. In this case, the burden of homeownership for actual demanders without homes will increase."
Concerns were also raised about instability in the rental market due to a decrease in private rental housing supply. With regulations on multiple homeowners and strengthened requirements for actual residence, existing rental properties may be converted to owner-occupied homes, reducing the options available to tenants.
Kim emphasized, "To replace private rental housing with public or corporate rental housing, we must first establish a supply base to accommodate this. If we shrink the private rental market without sufficient alternative supply, the pressure for rental price increases could intensify."
Kim pointed out, "If both capital gains tax and property tax are increased simultaneously, homeowners may find themselves in a dilemma. Those who cannot decide to sell by a certain point may find it increasingly difficult to sell their homes due to the tax burden."
He also raised concerns about the direction of tax policy that simultaneously strengthens property and transaction taxes. He noted, "Countries with high property taxes tend to have low transaction taxes, and vice versa. However, we are moving towards increasing both capital gains and property taxes." He explained that if only capital gains tax increases, homeowners can delay selling, and if only property tax increases, they may decide to sell after managing the tax burden. However, increasing both taxes simultaneously limits homeowners' options.
Kim predicted that changes to the long-term holding tax exemption and increased burdens from comprehensive real estate taxes could influence the selling decisions of high-value single-home owners. He argued that setting limits on exemptions for capital gains and reducing tax credits for comprehensive real estate taxes could significantly increase the tax burden for long-term residents, especially elderly single-home owners.
He also raised the possibility of a balloon effect due to tax increases. Kim stated, "If the tax burden in high-end housing markets like Gangnam increases, demand may shift to surrounding areas with relatively lower burdens, stimulating price increases in mid- to low-priced housing. In this case, the burden of homeownership for actual demanders without homes will increase."
Concerns were also raised about instability in the rental market due to a decrease in private rental housing supply. With regulations on multiple homeowners and strengthened requirements for actual residence, existing rental properties may be converted to owner-occupied homes, reducing the options available to tenants.
Kim emphasized, "To replace private rental housing with public or corporate rental housing, we must first establish a supply base to accommodate this. If we shrink the private rental market without sufficient alternative supply, the pressure for rental price increases could intensify."
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.