Iran's missile and drone attacks have surged in and around the Hormuz Strait, marking the most concentrated wave of ship attacks since the outbreak of the Iran war. This resurgence is disrupting the recovery of oil transportation, leading to rising international oil prices and record-high tanker rates.
According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), six ships were attacked in the Hormuz Strait on October 11. The Financial Times reported that these attacks represent the highest concentration of ship assaults since the onset of the Iran war.
Marine security firm Vanguard noted that among the six vessels attacked that day was an oil tanker owned by South Korea's Jangkum Shipping. The Financial Times also reported that a total of 24 ships have been attacked in the region over the past two weeks, significantly exceeding the 13 vessels attacked in the first two weeks following the outbreak of the Iran war in March.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed that Iran may be enhancing its anti-ship missile capabilities to target vessels more effectively. Reuters cited a senior Iranian official stating that the increase in attacks on ships in the Hormuz Strait aims to thwart efforts by the U.S. and its allies to lower international oil prices.
As a result of the intensified attacks, oil shipments through the Hormuz Strait, which had shown signs of recovery, are once again declining.
Commodity information firm Kpler reported that oil exports from the Middle East averaged 15.5 million barrels per day in September, the highest monthly figure since the Iran war began. Previously, Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell, estimated that oil shipments from the Middle East had reached about 80% of pre-war levels.
However, on October 11, only 2.9 million barrels of oil were transported through the Hormuz Strait, the lowest amount recorded this month. The average daily transit volume over the past week was also approximately 43% lower than pre-war levels.
With the rising risk of attacks, shipowners are becoming increasingly cautious. Bloomberg reported on October 13 that several very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and Suezmax tankers were observed turning back near Fujairah, a key maritime logistics hub at the entrance to the Hormuz Strait.
Tanker rates are also soaring. According to ship brokerage Clarkson, the average daily earnings for VLCCs reached a record high of $805,000 on October 9. The demand for tankers has increased by about 13% due to longer voyage distances and increased ship-to-ship transfers.
Concerns over disruptions to oil shipments through the Hormuz Strait could exert upward pressure on international oil prices. Additionally, clashes between Houthi rebels in Yemen and Saudi Arabia have intensified, raising anxieties surrounding energy facilities and maritime transport networks in the region. On October 13, a building within the headquarters complex of Saudi Aramco in Dhahran was struck by a missile, resulting in a fire, although the Saudi Energy Ministry reported no casualties.
International oil prices are also on the rise. CNBC reported on October 14 that Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.24% to $107.02 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery increased 1.18% to $95.25 per barrel.
Paul Tudor Jones, a hedge fund manager, told CNBC that tensions with Iran could push oil prices up by an additional $20 to $25.
However, Bloomberg noted that in the past, periods of concentrated attacks in the Hormuz Strait have led to temporary declines in oil shipments, but these volumes often rebound within days. The extent to which this latest wave of attacks will impact oil shipments remains uncertain.
Ahmed Ali Alsubaie, CEO of Saudi shipping company Bahri, stated at an industry event on October 13 that Saudi Arabia will continue to transport oil despite these challenges.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.