Brazil Presidential Election Poll: Bolsonaro Leads Lula 46% to 44%

by Haeun Song Posted : October 15, 2026, 11:00Updated : October 15, 2026, 11:00

In a recent poll ahead of the Brazilian presidential runoff, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has a slight lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, the margin between the candidates falls within the margin of error of ±2 percentage points.


Reuters reported on October 14, citing the polling firm Quaest.


Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempting a coup following his defeat to Lula in the 2022 election. Jair began serving his sentence in November of last year but has been under house arrest since March due to health issues. He has been stripped of his eligibility to run for office and publicly endorsed his son Flávio as his successor in December.


Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right politician who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is considered an ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Flávio, also aligned with the right-wing Liberal Party, has pledged to continue his father's legacy and is viewed as close to Trump.


In the first round of voting on October 4, Senator Bolsonaro outperformed President Lula. In the Brazilian presidential election, a candidate must secure a majority of valid votes to win outright. However, with 99.84% of the votes counted, Bolsonaro received 47.07% and Lula garnered 45.12%, leaving both candidates short of a majority. They will face off in a runoff election on October 25.





* This article has been translated by AI.