This year, housing construction in the Seoul area has reached only about 37% of the government's annual target. The government explained that a shortage of pre-developed land has led to a concentration of public housing starts in the second half of the year, but it forecasts that the total number of housing starts will fall short of the initial goal by as much as 50,000 units by year-end.
According to the first regular housing supply briefing held on October 16 by the Office for Government Policy Coordination and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the number of housing starts in the Seoul area, as of the second week of October, exceeded 99,000 units. This is approximately 37% of the annual target of 268,000 units.
To meet the original target, about 169,000 additional units would need to be started. The government's year-end forecast estimates that the total will be between 218,000 and 235,000 units, which is 33,000 to 50,000 units below the target. The projected achievement rate is expected to remain between 81% and 88%.
To reach the lower end of the year-end forecast, a significant number of units must be started in the remaining months. Based on the reported 99,000 units, approximately 119,000 more would need to be started to reach the minimum forecast of 218,000 units, and about 136,000 more for the upper forecast of 235,000 units.
The government noted that public housing projects require planning and land development procedures at the beginning of the year, which structurally leads to a concentration of actual housing starts in the second half. While the government set an ambitious construction target this year, it maintains that the year-end forecast of 218,000 to 235,000 units is achievable.
Despite these plans, the current performance of public housing and private redevelopment projects remains relatively low. Of the public housing target of 62,000 units, only 16,200 units have been started, resulting in an achievement rate of 26%. In public land development, 14,200 units have begun construction, including 7,300 units in the third new town projects in Goyang Changneung and Incheon Gyeyang, while about 2,000 units have been started in urban areas, such as the redevelopment of old government buildings in Seoul.
In urban areas, 13,000 units have been started out of a target of 42,000 units, achieving a rate of 31%. The breakdown by region shows approximately 3,600 units in Seoul, 7,000 in Gyeonggi, and 2,700 in Incheon.
As of September, private redevelopment projects have started about 17,000 units out of a target of 72,000, resulting in an achievement rate of 23.6%. Major construction sites in Seoul include about 3,100 units in Junggye-dong, 1,500 in Heukseok 11 District, and 1,400 in Sinlim 2 District.
In contrast, other private housing projects, including privately developed housing in public land and urban development projects, have started 47,000 units out of a target of 86,000, achieving a rate of 54.7%. However, there are differences in the timing of statistical reporting for different types of supply. Private redevelopment statistics are based on September, while other private housing figures are based on the end of August.
The supply performance for stabilizing the rental market is insufficient compared to long-term averages. The government reported that from January to August this year, housing permits in Seoul reached 40,000, a 40% increase from the same period last year, while construction starts rose by 41% to 21,000 units. These figures represent the highest levels in the last five years for permits and the last four years for construction starts.
However, the housing construction figures for Seoul are about 18,000 units lower than the average of 39,000 units for the same period over the past decade. The construction of general housing, including urban-type housing, stands at about 5,000 units, only 31% of the recent 10-year average of 16,000 units. General housing permits are around 6,000 units, also falling short of the 10-year average of 16,000 units.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport recently explained that the rental market is facing difficulties due to a decrease in move-in volumes. While it noted that the rate of increase in jeonse prices has slowed since June, it emphasized the need for short-term supply expansion and strengthening tenant housing security. The government holds provisional estimates for future move-in volumes but explained that it is difficult to provide specific figures for the next five years, as it takes 3 to 4 years for apartments to be ready for occupancy.
The first move-ins for the Incheon Gyeyang third new town, scheduled for December this year, are proceeding as planned. A government official stated that the construction of the buildings for the first move-in housing in Incheon Gyeyang has been completed, and most of the interior finishing work is also finished. A pre-inspection for residents is scheduled for mid-November, so there are no anticipated delays in the move-in schedule.
The government plans to promote the move-in of about 100,000 public housing units in the Seoul area from the fourth quarter of this year until the end of next year. However, this includes 45,000 units for jeonse rental and 29,000 units for purchased rental, meaning not all are newly constructed homes.
By year-end, the government will also conduct recruitment for residents for over 10,000 public sale units and more than 5,000 public rental units. Planned public sale sites include 1,100 units in Goyang Changneung, 1,300 in Seoul's Godeok Gangil, and 2,100 in Pyeongtaek Godeok. Public rental sites include 1,400 units in Gwacheon Knowledge Information Town and 900 units in Guri Galmae Station area. These figures represent the recruitment volumes for sale and rental, not actual move-ins by year-end.
Additionally, the government announced that it has completed 48 out of 145 detailed tasks from the rapid housing supply measures announced in August, with the remaining 97 tasks underway. Completed tasks include proposals for legal amendments. The 'Integrated Housing Supply Support Center,' which will address supply site challenges, is set to be established within the year, and the government plans to closely manage about 300 residential project financing (PF) sites.
Kim Yong-soo, the second deputy director of the Office for Government Policy Coordination, stated, "Housing supply is not just about announcing plans; it is crucial to deliver the promised volumes to the public. We will concentrate government-wide efforts to resolve on-site obstacles and ensure that major projects proceed as scheduled in collaboration with relevant ministries, local governments, and public institutions."
Kim Yi-tak, the first deputy minister of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, emphasized, "What is important for the public is to know specifically 'where and when their homes will be available.' We will continuously disclose specific supply schedules and conditions, demonstrating our commitment to quickly provide quality housing in desired locations."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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