U.S. President Donald Trump has left open the possibility of a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during next month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, sparking discussions around a so-called 'Yalta 2.0.'
The original Yalta Conference took place in February 1945, where leaders from the U.S., U.K., and Soviet Union met to discuss post-war international order and the fate of Europe. Concerns are rising that this upcoming meeting could see major powers discussing issues such as the Ukraine war and security matters, potentially seeking a new balance of power.
However, the differing interests of the three nations cast doubt on whether the meeting will occur, and even if it does, reaching substantial agreements may prove challenging.
Fears of Major Powers Discussing Fates of Ukraine and Taiwan
The Wall Street Journal criticized Trump's potential 'Yalta 2.0' initiative in an editorial on October 20, arguing that his efforts to negotiate with Putin and Xi to end the Ukraine war and facilitate trade with China could destabilize domestic and international alliances.
The Journal noted that Trump appears to be trying to appease Putin by suspending sanctions, aiming to leave a political legacy through a grand compromise with Russia and China. It warned that if the U.S. compromises with these nations, it could sacrifice the interests of Ukraine and Taiwan, as well as undermine America's alliance system. Concerns about domestic political fallout, including divisions within the Republican Party, were also raised.
Ukraine is wary of being sidelined in negotiations that could determine the course of the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 20, "I do not know what the content of a three-way meeting between the U.S., China, and Russia would be. That is for them to decide, but if our future is being discussed, we must be at the negotiating table."
Diverging Interests Complicate Potential Agenda Agreement
The likelihood of the meeting taking place remains uncertain. The South China Morning Post reported on October 21 that the ability to find common ground on issues such as the Ukraine war, nuclear disarmament, and U.S.-China trade tensions will be crucial for the meeting's success.
Putin reportedly wishes to discuss ways to end the Ukraine war, while Trump has indicated he would prioritize nuclear weapons and denuclearization over the Ukraine issue. Meanwhile, China has historically opposed U.S. calls for participation in nuclear disarmament talks, making it difficult for the three nations to find common ground.
Nonetheless, if the meeting occurs, Russia could achieve a symbolic victory by breaking free from international isolation and securing a diplomatic platform to discuss the Ukraine war. For Trump, it would be an opportunity to negotiate directly with leaders of major powers beyond the constraints of existing alliances.
China could gain symbolic benefits by enhancing its international status and diplomatic influence. The Singapore-based United Daily News noted that a successful U.S.-China-Russia summit would elevate APEC's international profile and add historical significance to China's hosting of this year's key diplomatic event, showcasing its leadership and diplomatic coordination capabilities.
China Wary of Power-Sharing Among Major Nations
However, China may not welcome the meeting unconditionally. Having long opposed great power hegemony and advocated for a multipolar world, China might be cautious about appearing to participate in a framework where major powers divide spheres of influence at the expense of third countries. The United Daily News warned that if the U.S.-China-Russia meeting leads to a closed political structure dominated by major powers, it could limit China's ability to cooperate with European, Asian, and Global South nations.
As a result, China may seek to identify cooperative agendas on international issues during the meeting. Wang Wen, director of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, told the South China Morning Post that China is likely to discuss constructive and mutually beneficial issues such as risks arising from great power relations, global economic recovery, food and energy security, and climate change.
Even if the meeting takes place, some analysts believe it may only result in a symbolic encounter. Hemant Adlakha, a researcher at Nehru University in India, suggested that if an official meeting proves difficult, the leaders might opt for informal interactions, such as walking together or having tea. Wang also cautioned against overly optimistic expectations for the meeting's outcomes, emphasizing that even if it occurs, it may only establish communication channels to prevent miscalculations in crises, create a basic consensus on international issues, and clarify each country's red lines. He stated, "Expectations that this meeting will resolve the Russia-Ukraine war or fundamentally reshape the international order are not realistic."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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