The upcoming fifth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to see attendance from less than 80% of its members and candidates, marking the lowest participation rate since the death of Mao Zedong. This decline is attributed to a widespread purge of senior officials within the party. The session is scheduled to take place in Beijing from October 26 to 29.
The China Analysis Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute recently projected that out of the 376 central committee candidates elected at the 20th National Congress in October 2022, only 291 are expected to attend, resulting in an anticipated attendance rate of 77.4%.
This figure is lower than the 83.8% attendance rate recorded at last year's fourth plenary session, which saw 315 members and candidates present. The report indicates that this year's attendance will be the lowest among plenary sessions held since Mao's era.
The low turnout is linked to ongoing anti-corruption efforts and the purging of high-ranking officials within the party, government, and military. According to the report, 71 officials at the deputy ministerial level or higher, as well as senior military officers, have been dismissed or are under investigation as of September this year. This figure is approaching last year's total of 77, suggesting that this year's numbers could surpass that of the previous year.
Since taking office in 2012, President Xi Jinping has identified corruption as a significant threat to the Communist Party's governance and has maintained a vigorous anti-corruption campaign. The intensity of these efforts has increased, with approximately 1.01 million cases reported by China's disciplinary and inspection authorities last year, a substantial rise from about 155,000 cases in Xi's first year in office.
Following the 20th Party Congress, 20 central committee members and 8 candidates were expelled from the party due to corruption and other disciplinary violations, while 15 central committee members and 6 candidates are currently under investigation. Additionally, 21 central committee members and 13 candidates are unaccounted for, with over two-thirds of them believed to be affiliated with the military. Xi has continued to target military leadership following corruption allegations involving the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force in 2023.
The personnel vacuum within the military is particularly pronounced. The report indicates that only 20.9% of military personnel who entered the central committee during the 20th Party Congress (including candidates) appear to be politically secure. Among the 44 active-duty generals elected as central committee members, only two, Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Li Shangfu, Minister of National Defense, remain in their positions. Prominent military figures who entered the Politburo, such as former vice chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, have also fallen from grace since last year's fourth plenary session.
Meanwhile, the fifth plenary session is expected to address measures to strengthen the party's governance system and internal discipline alongside the ongoing anti-corruption efforts. The Communist Party has previously indicated that comprehensive and strict party governance will be a key topic of discussion at the session.
The report anticipates that a blueprint for enhancing the party's governance system will be discussed, particularly the potential development of Xi Jinping's party-building ideology, first unveiled in June, into specific systems and regulations. This initiative aims to reinforce the party's leadership and ideological cohesion while emphasizing the management of officials and the implementation of policy directives.
As a result, the fifth plenary session is expected to cover plans for strengthening oversight of major decisions, projects, and expenditures, as well as expanding officials' accountability for violations by subordinates. Measures to address regulatory loopholes that could lead to misconduct may also be on the agenda.
Additionally, discussions may include the use of big data to detect corruption, enhancing cooperation between the central government and disciplinary inspection and audit agencies, and reforming the official evaluation system. The report suggests that new ideological expressions supporting Xi's anti-corruption and discipline enhancement agenda may also be presented.
This fifth plenary session is likely to be the last full meeting of the Communist Party before it forms a new leadership at the 21st Party Congress, expected in the fall of next year. The key points of interest at the 21st Party Congress will include whether Xi will seek a fourth term and the selection of the next leadership team.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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