Oh Se-hoon, the mayor of Seoul, is reemerging as a leading candidate for the presidency after overcoming significant legal challenges. On October 23, he was acquitted in an appeal related to allegations of campaign finance violations, which has been seen as a stepping stone for his political comeback. Some analysts suggest that this could be a pivotal moment for Oh in his political career.
Oh's resurgence is expected to impact the competition among potential candidates from the broader opposition. Recent polls indicate a competitive landscape between him and independent lawmaker Han Dong-hun, who has been leading in public support. This development could intensify the rivalry among opposition figures. Meanwhile, Jang Dong-hyuk, the current leader of the People Power Party, faces challenges in maintaining his influence amid internal power struggles with non-affiliated party members. Analysts believe that the easing of Oh's legal troubles could disrupt the power dynamics within the conservative camp.
Han is currently leading in suitability polls for the next presidential candidate. According to a survey conducted by Straight News and commissioned by Jo Won C&I, released on October 21, Han received 18.7% support, followed by Kim Min-seok of the Democratic Party at 13.8%, and both Jang and Oh at 13.7% and 12.0%, respectively.
Han entered the National Assembly after winning a by-election in Busan's Buk-gap district during the June 3 local elections and has since been a prominent critic of the government. His recent performance during the confirmation hearing for former Justice Minister nominee Kim Seung-won has solidified his image as a key opposition figure.
However, Oh's rise could alter the dynamics of the presidential race that Han has been leading. Prior to the appeal ruling, polls indicated that Oh was narrowing the gap with other candidates. In the aforementioned Straight News and Jo Won C&I survey, Han's suitability rating dropped by 0.1 percentage points, while Oh's increased by 2.1 percentage points. During the same period, Jang and Kim also saw declines of 1.2 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively.
The acquittal could also enhance Oh's standing within the party. There are expectations that neutral lawmakers, who do not strongly align with either the pro-Jang or pro-Han factions, may rally around Oh. With his legal risks diminished, Oh could expand his support base within the party and secure political space for a presidential bid.
Political commentator Choi Yo-han noted, "There will likely be a shift within the party towards Oh under the banner of 'Creating a New People Power Party.' The party will likely activate the 'Oh Se-hoon presidential plan' in earnest."
Oh's political revival may also influence the opposition's strategy against the government. If he leverages his administrative experience as mayor and his appeal to moderate voters, it could shift the focus and strategy of the conservative camp.
Choi Jin, head of the Presidential Leadership Research Institute, predicted, "Oh will likely take more proactive steps to expand his influence within the party as a leading presidential candidate."
Conversely, Jang may face increased political pressure. Criticized for focusing on hardline supporters while neglecting moderate outreach, Jang must be wary of the potential for internal disputes over party direction as Oh's rise emphasizes the need for broader appeal. The competition for leadership between the pro-Jang faction and reformist conservatives could intensify around the so-called 'middle-ground strategy' targeting moderates, urban voters, and youth.
Ultimately, Oh's acquittal not only alleviates his personal legal challenges but also emerges as a significant factor in the competition for the next presidential candidate among the opposition and the internal power dynamics within the People Power Party. Whether Oh can effectively broaden his support base and establish himself as a viable presidential candidate, or if Han can maintain his lead, while Jang manages internal conflicts, will be key points of interest in the conservative camp moving forward.
Meanwhile, the poll cited in this article was conducted by Straight News and Jo Won C&I from October 17 to 19, involving 2,000 randomly selected adults aged 18 and older, using a random digit dialing (RDD) method with an automated response system (ARS). The response rate was 3.4%, with a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. More details can be found on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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