Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could replace nearly all human labor, leading to what may be the most chaotic period in human history over the next 20 years.
In a recent interview with the UK’s Observer on October 25, Gates described AI as an 'evolutionary event,' likening it to the fundamental transition of life on Earth from primates to humans. He noted that advancements in AI are shaking humanity's status as the most intelligent species on the planet.
Gates predicted that for the next five years, collaboration between humans and AI could allow mathematicians to thrive. However, he believes that within 20 years, AI will surpass human capabilities in mathematical discoveries, biological simulations, and engineering design. He admitted that even in his own field, he has already fallen behind AI. 'By the end of last year, I realized that my coding skills, which I had honed since I was 13, had become virtually useless,' he said, asserting that the era of humans being the best programmers has already passed.
He also forecasted that AI would replace jobs in invention and office work, and that advancements in humanoid robots could take over physical labor. He emphasized that significant changes are inevitable across nearly all areas of work traditionally performed by humans.
Similar concerns were echoed in another interview Gates gave on October 22 with the tech publication The Verge. He warned that while AI could ultimately lead to a more prosperous society, it could also cause severe disruption during the transition. Gates explained that as AI and humanoid robots take over tasks such as housing construction, food production, and surgeries, there may come a time when human labor is no longer needed to produce most goods and services. He expressed particular concern about the potential for significant social upheaval, where winners and losers emerge during this transition.
However, Gates believes that even if AI possesses superior abilities, not all tasks should be delegated to machines. He suggested that society could discuss keeping certain activities, such as art, sports, cooking, and childcare, within the human domain. He also raised the need to redesign jobs and human roles through measures like reduced working hours or early retirement.
Gates illustrated a scenario where AI might say to him, 'I can do this better than you, so go play pickleball while I handle this.' He stressed that this is not merely a joke, as policies must consider the livelihoods of those who lose jobs and the sense of accomplishment derived from work.
Additionally, Gates pointed out that as AI and robots replace human labor, there could be a decline in tax revenues. He argued for the need to consider taxing robots and expanding social safety nets.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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