Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are both poised to announce record earnings, with the sales growth of the sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) becoming a focal point.
According to industry sources, SK Hynix will release its confirmed Q3 results on October 28, while Samsung Electronics will follow on October 29. Samsung previously reported an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won in its preliminary results. SK Hynix is expected to report an operating profit of approximately 77 trillion won, based on market forecasts. The combined operating profit of both companies is projected to reach 184 trillion won.
A key aspect of this performance is the significant contribution of HBM4 sales. Samsung began mass production and shipments of HBM4 in February, generating revenue from the first quarter. SK Hynix started supplying HBM4 to major clients in the second quarter. While Samsung has taken the lead in commercial sales, both companies are ramping up production and supply in the second half of the year, making the impact on Q3 results a point of interest.
In its Q2 earnings announcement in July, Samsung projected that HBM4 sales in Q3 would increase more than threefold compared to the previous quarter. It also anticipated that HBM4 would account for over 60% of total HBM sales in the second half of the year. The company is improving production capacity and yield for HBM4, which utilizes 10-nanometer 6th generation (1c) DRAM and 4-nanometer foundry processes.
SK Hynix is also accelerating its HBM4 supply expansion. In its Q2 earnings report, the company noted that HBM4 production yield and quality are nearing the levels of the existing HBM3E, and it plans to significantly increase production capacity in the second half of the year.
Recently, there have been suggestions that Samsung may have surpassed SK Hynix in HBM sales for Q3, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape. U.S. investment bank Bernstein estimates Samsung's Q3 HBM sales at $8.7 billion, a 33% increase from the previous quarter. SK Hynix is projected to see an 11% increase to $7.6 billion. These figures are based on export statistics from domestic semiconductor production regions and are not confirmed results. Notably, these estimates compare total HBM sales, not just HBM4.
It remains unclear whether both companies will separately disclose HBM4 revenue metrics in their Q3 earnings announcements. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of overall HBM sales trends and future production plans will be necessary to assess HBM4 performance. The revenue metrics for HBM4 are expected to provide a basis for comparing Samsung's early shipment effects with SK Hynix's supply expansion achievements.
Jung Woo-sung, a researcher at LS Securities, commented on Samsung, stating, "It appears that Samsung has secured relatively high production capabilities for HBM4." He further analyzed the competition between the two companies, suggesting that it reflects a normalization of competition among suppliers rather than a slowdown in the overall HBM market growth.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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