El Niño, which developed this year, is expected to be the strongest on record, leading to a warmer winter with increased precipitation. An unusual heat wave and frequent rainfall in October were attributed to El Niño.
According to Yonhap News on November 6, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) predicts that the El Niño, which began in May, will become the "strongest El Niño ever recorded." From November 11 to 17, the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific El Niño-La Niña monitoring area reached 30.0 degrees Celsius, which is 3.3 degrees higher than the average. This significantly exceeds the 1.5-degree threshold for a "strong El Niño."
The average deviation from August to October was 2.4 degrees, the highest since records began in 1950, surpassing the strong El Niño events of 1997 and 2015. This El Niño is expected to peak in December.
When El Niño occurs, high-pressure systems frequently develop to the east of South Korea. This leads to warm, humid southern winds, resulting in higher temperatures and increased rainfall. The KMA forecasts that temperatures in November and December will be above average, with significant precipitation expected. January temperatures are also anticipated to be higher than normal, but the agency cautioned that winter weather can also be influenced by other factors, such as Arctic sea ice melting, and advised checking the latest forecasts.
The effects of El Niño were evident in October's weather. According to climate analysis from the KMA reported by Yonhap News on November 4, the average temperature nationwide last month was 15.8 degrees Celsius, which is 1.5 degrees above average. This marks the fifth-highest October temperature recorded since 1973. On October 12, Seoul's high temperature reached 30.1 degrees, setting a new record for the month.
In late October, cold air frequently descended, causing significant temperature fluctuations. The national average temperature dropped from 19.8 degrees on the 18th to 9.8 degrees on the 22nd, a decrease of 10 degrees. Precipitation totaled 108.5 mm, 1.7 times the average. The KMA attributed this to the development of high-pressure systems southeast of South Korea due to El Niño, which brought in warm, humid air.
Meanwhile, there are warnings that El Niño could impact inflation. On November 3, Yonhap News cited an analysis from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, which suggested that this El Niño could raise U.S. inflation by up to 1 percentage point next year. This projection is based on the assumption that La Niña will follow El Niño next year. The researchers estimated that El Niño likely increased the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index by about 0.3 percentage points from April to July this year.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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