China's exports and imports in October exceeded market expectations. Notably, imports surged due to a spike in artificial intelligence (AI) products, key minerals, and energy supplies, leading to a higher growth rate in imports compared to exports.
According to the General Administration of Customs on October 10, exports rose by 35.2% year-on-year in dollar terms, surpassing the market forecast of 33.5% compiled by Reuters, although it was a slowdown from the previous month's growth rate of 36.3%.
During the same period, imports skyrocketed by 41.6%, significantly exceeding both the previous month's increase of 31% and the Reuters estimate of 32%.
As a result, the trade surplus for October was $105.3 billion, the lowest since April. However, the cumulative trade surplus for the first ten months of this year reached $1.04 trillion, nearing the annual record of $1.2 trillion set in 2025.
Shu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, analyzed in an interview with CNBC that the surge in imports was driven by demand for advanced technology products, copper, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, and coal. In fact, imports of high-tech products in October increased by 72% compared to the same month last year, while imports of crude oil, LNG, and coal rose by approximately 41%, 50%, and 60%, respectively.
Market analysts suggest that robust export growth indicates that China could achieve its annual growth target of 4.5-5% with limited economic stimulus measures.
However, concerns persist regarding the slow recovery of domestic consumption, exacerbated by a prolonged downturn in the real estate market, which is deepening structural imbalances in the Chinese economy. Retail sales in September, for instance, only increased by 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
Moreover, the recent surge in China's exports is supported by strong demand for semiconductors and AI-related hardware. However, with ongoing debates about overinvestment in AI, a slowdown in global infrastructure investment for AI could also impact China's export growth.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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