Uncertainty is growing regarding the potential for a trilateral summit involving the United States, China, and Russia, scheduled to coincide with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19.
According to the Wall Street Journal on November 9, the US and China are at odds over the format of the meeting. China prefers a scripted approach where leaders read prepared statements, while the US favors a format that allows for free exchange of ideas.
China reportedly insists that any trilateral meeting must have a pre-arranged agenda and predictable outcomes. Sources indicate that President Xi Jinping seeks the visual success of a summit with photo opportunities and joint statements but wants to avoid the risks associated with unpredictable discussions.
If prior coordination does not occur, China may prefer to hold separate bilateral meetings with the US and Russia instead of a trilateral summit.
Typically, Xi's meetings with foreign leaders are meticulously planned, with detailed agreements on speaking order and content, minimizing spontaneous dialogue.
As Xi approaches the 21st National Congress of the Communist Party of China next fall, analysts suggest he will aim to minimize unpredictable political variables. He is expected to secure a fourth term at this congress.
There are also diverging interests among the countries regarding the summit agenda.
President Donald Trump has expressed a desire to discuss nuclear disarmament at the meeting, while China has historically opposed US calls for its participation in nuclear disarmament negotiations, citing its significantly smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the US and Russia. The Wall Street Journal noted, "For Xi, who has led the largest nuclear buildup in history, this is a difficult proposition to accept."
President Vladimir Putin is reportedly interested in discussing the Ukraine war during the summit. Trump’s conciliatory stance toward Russia suggests he may seek to leverage China’s assistance to negotiate favorable terms for ending the conflict in Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal also analyzed that there may be an intention to exclude Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from these discussions.
China is open to discussing international issues, including Ukraine, at the trilateral summit but insists on prior coordination.
Regarding the end of the Iran war, there are also differences in approach between the US and China. The Hong Kong South China Morning Post reported on November 10 that Trump, facing political pressure after a poor showing in the midterm elections, may seek to use the trilateral summit as a breakthrough to extricate himself from the quagmire of the Iran conflict.
While both the US and China agree on the necessity of ending the Iran war, they differ on the approach. Trump aims to utilize China’s influence over Iran to advance peace negotiations, whereas China prefers to act as a neutral mediator, providing diplomatic space rather than applying direct pressure on Iran.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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