The leaders of the United States, China, and Russia are set to meet for the first time, raising hopes for a shift in the uncertainties surrounding tariffs, energy, and supply chains that have weighed on the global economy. A breakthrough in the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict and the war in the Middle East could positively impact the South Korean economy.
However, given the sharply diverging interests of the three nations, it remains uncertain whether the meeting will lead to substantial agreements.
According to foreign media reports on November 15, U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a trilateral meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, scheduled for November 18-19. The White House and the Kremlin have indicated that the meeting will take place on the 19th.
This summit marks the first time that the leaders of these three influential countries will convene, with major topics including the war in Iran and nuclear disarmament. However, differing positions among the countries suggest that concrete agreements may be unlikely.
U.S.-China trade relations are also a key focus. Trump and Xi are expected to hold a separate meeting during the APEC summit to discuss tariffs, export controls on advanced technology, and critical mineral supply chains. Prior to the summit, the two countries held their first trade committee meeting on November 13 to discuss tariff reductions and agricultural trade.
If the two nations reach additional agreements to ease trade tensions during this meeting, it could have a positive impact on global trade and supply chain stability. A reduction in tensions surrounding U.S. export controls on advanced technology and China's restrictions on critical mineral exports could alleviate some uncertainties in global manufacturing.
South Korea could also benefit from these developments. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, South Korea's exports to China reached $26.98 billion last month, while exports to the United States totaled $24.9 billion. Both countries are key export markets for South Korea, and a reduction in trade tensions could improve export conditions for domestic companies. However, ongoing competition for technological supremacy in advanced industries may limit the practical effects of any agreements.
In the energy sector, the outcome of the war in Iran is a critical variable. If the U.S., Russia, and China can find common ground on stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and addressing oil supply disruptions, it could ease upward pressure on international oil prices.
For South Korea, which heavily relies on oil imports, this could help reduce energy costs and domestic inflationary pressures. International oil prices have shown high volatility due to concerns over the Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions.
Conversely, uncertainties surrounding natural gas supply are unlikely to be resolved in the short term. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is expected to be excluded from the main agenda of the trilateral meeting. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply will decrease by 3% this year compared to last year due to supply disruptions from the Middle East, with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz potentially continuing until the end of the year.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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