Hungary has implemented extensive financial incentives to encourage childbirth over the past 16 years, but recent reports indicate that the birth rate has once again declined. Experts suggest that cash support alone is insufficient to address the low birth rate issue.
On June 16, the BBC analyzed Hungary's birth promotion policies, stating, "Despite implementing one of the world's most aggressive pro-natalist policies, the impact on birth rates has been limited."
The BBC highlighted the case of a Hungarian couple who recently failed to conceive through in vitro fertilization (IVF). Under the government's birth encouragement policy, they had committed to having two children and received an interest-free loan of 10 million forints (approximately $28,000).
However, as the likelihood of having children within the promised timeframe diminished, they faced the prospect of incurring additional penalties of 1.5 to 3.5 million forints ($4,200 to $9,800) in interest on top of the principal amount.
This program is a key component of the pro-natalist policies introduced by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's administration to tackle the low birth rate. Married heterosexual couples who commit to having children are offered interest-free loans, housing purchase subsidies, tax reductions, and car purchase grants. If they fulfill their commitment within a specified period, their repayment obligations are reduced; otherwise, they face diminished benefits or additional interest payments.
Since the Orbán government took office in 2010, these policies have been implemented to address the issue of population decline. At that time, the government prioritized increasing the birth rate over expanding immigration as a key demographic strategy.
Initially, the policies appeared to be effective, with Hungary's total fertility rate rising from 1.25 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2020. However, the trend has since reversed, with the total fertility rate dropping to 1.31 in 2025, a figure that shows little change compared to the early years of the policy. The BBC noted that Hungary was once regarded as a success story in combating low birth rates, but recent declines have raised concerns.
Thomas Sobotka, a demographer at the Vienna Institute of Demography, told the BBC, "Based on the policy goals, this is clearly a failure." He pointed out that the recent decline in birth rates is influenced not only by economic factors but also by uncertainties about the future and social anxieties.
Some analysts suggest that Hungary's policies may have helped mitigate the extent of the decline in birth rates. However, the BBC emphasized that economic support may not be the primary factor in deciding to have children.
According to the report, some Hungarian women express greater concern about healthcare services and childcare environments than about financial incentives. A 29-year-old woman living in Budapest and raising children told the BBC, "Improvements in education and healthcare systems should be prioritized."
The BBC also referenced South Korea, which has invested over 400 trillion won in low birth rate policies since 2008, yet its total fertility rate is projected to fall to 0.8 by 2025. The report concluded that the low birth rate phenomenon is not merely an economic issue but a complex interplay of social and cultural factors.
Experts point to the examples of Nordic countries, highlighting the importance of institutional support for creating a family-friendly environment, including parental leave, public childcare, flexible work arrangements, and a culture of gender-equitable caregiving.
The BBC assessed that Hungary's case illustrates both the effectiveness and limitations of birth promotion policies. While short-term cash incentives may encourage earlier childbirth, they have not led to a sustained increase in birth rates.
Currently, the Hungarian government is reviewing its loan system and overall support policies based on childbirth commitments, according to the BBC.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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