This year, more than 350,000 people have left the housing lottery system, accelerating the trend of 'opting out' of lotteries. However, the proportion of applicants under 40 in the Seoul and Gyeonggi housing market has increased. Young homebuyers, facing rising home and rental prices along with loan regulations, are remaining in the lottery system despite financial burdens.
According to an analysis of regional housing lottery applicant data by the Korea Real Estate Agency, a total of 264,067 applicants registered in the first half of this year (January to June) in Seoul and Gyeonggi. Among them, 164,929 were in their 30s or younger, and 68,044 were in their 40s, totaling 232,973 applicants. This means that approximately 88.2% of applicants in Seoul and Gyeonggi were under 40.
The trend of younger applicants in the Seoul and Gyeonggi housing lottery market has become more pronounced over the past three years. The combined proportion of applicants in their 30s and 40s rose from 83.9% in 2024 to 85.9% last year, and now stands at 88.2% this year, marking a 4.23 percentage point increase over two years.
In Seoul, the proportion of applicants under 40 increased from 85.5% in the first half of 2024 to 86.5% last year, and now to 88.4% this year. The number of applicants in this age group rose from 156,482 to 192,063, a 22.74% increase. Notably, the proportion of applicants in their 30s rose from 58.76% to 61.39%. In Gyeonggi Province, the proportion of applicants under 40 increased from 84.87% in the first half of last year to 87.18% this year, a 2.31 percentage point rise.
Conversely, the overall base of lottery participants is rapidly declining. According to the Housing Lottery Home, as of the end of June, the total number of housing lottery accounts was 25,834,034, a decrease of 350,073 from the end of last year. The high selling prices and low chances of winning have weakened the incentive to maintain lottery accounts. However, the demand for housing lotteries in Seoul and Gyeonggi continues, particularly among those in their 30s and 40s, who face limited options in both the buying and rental markets due to stringent loan regulations.
In fact, the capital required to purchase existing apartments has significantly increased due to mortgage regulations. KB Kookmin Bank has limited the maximum loan amount for home purchases to 300 million won as of the 10th of this month. Under government regulations, this is half of the 600 million won available for purchasing homes priced below 1.5 billion won in the metropolitan area and regulated regions. To buy an apartment in Seoul with an average sale price of 1.3594 billion won, nearly 1.1 billion won in personal capital is required.
The lottery process typically takes several years from the payment of the down payment to move-in, allowing applicants to secure funding more gradually than purchasing existing homes outright. Special allocations for newlyweds and first-time buyers, along with some lottery options, provide opportunities for younger applicants with lower scores. As the barriers to purchasing existing homes rise due to loan restrictions and increasing rental burdens, many young applicants find it difficult to forgo the lottery, leading to a 'crying while eating mustard' situation where demand accumulates despite low chances of winning.
However, the lottery cannot serve as a workaround for loan regulations. Applicants still face loan restrictions when securing mid-term and final payments after winning. If the loan limit at the time of move-in is lower than expected or if the selling price increases, the required personal capital may rise, leading to more cases of contract cancellations or difficulties in moving in.
Experts warn that if restrictions on securing funds for both purchasing existing homes and final payments for new developments continue, the lottery may fail to fulfill its original purpose of providing a pathway to homeownership. This makes it difficult to interpret the concentration of applicants in their 30s and 40s as a straightforward recovery of the lottery market.
Park Ji-min, head of the Wollyong Housing Lottery Research Institute, stated, "Due to loan regulations, purchasing a home priced at 1.5 billion won now requires about 900 million to 1 billion won in personal capital, significantly raising the barriers to buying existing homes. Coupled with anxiety over rising home prices, this has led to a concentration of financially capable buyers among the economically active 30s and 40s, particularly focusing on value-driven offerings in the metropolitan area."
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.