The research firm forecast that Samsung's smartphone shipments will rise 0.8 percent from a year earlier, while Apple's are expected to fall 2.1 percent, putting Samsung back in the No. 1 spot after Apple took the lead last year.
It cited Samsung's broad product portfolio and geographically diversified business as reasons for its positive outlook, as well as the handset maker's ability to source components internally and its extensive distribution networks, which could help it navigate growing supply chain uncertainties.
But global smartphone shipments are projected to fall 14.3 percent this year as rising component costs and weaker consumer demand put pressure on the market, with shipments expected to decline another 1.4 percent next year before recovering in 2028. Higher prices for memory and chipsets are also raising manufacturing costs and could further weaken demand.
The impact is expected to be greater on midrange and budget smartphones, where components make up a larger share of the retail price. Chinese smartphone makers could be hit particularly hard because they rely more heavily on these segments and price-sensitive markets.
For this reason, shipments from major Chinese smartphone brands are expected to decline by 15 percent to 34 percent this year, while the premium segment is expected to remain relatively strong.
As for Apple, new products expected to launch this fall including its first foldable iPhone could provide a boost. However, initial sales of the foldable model are expected to reach only several million units, which is unlikely to significantly lift its overall shipments. Apple may also face higher production costs for its upcoming iPhone 18 series as component prices rise.
AJP Takeaways
• Samsung Electronics is expected to reclaim the No. 1 spot in the global smartphone market this year, with shipments forecast to rise 0.8 percent.
• Apple's smartphone shipments are projected to fall 2.1 percent, allowing Samsung to regain the lead after Apple topped the market last year.
• Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 14.3 percent this year as higher component costs and weaker consumer demand weigh on the market.
• Chinese smartphone brands could face steeper declines of 15 percent to 34 percent, particularly in the midrange and budget segments.
• Apple's first foldable iPhone could provide a boost this fall, but limited initial sales and higher component costs may constrain its overall performance.
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