As Nvidia prepares to announce its earnings, concerns are rising in South Korea's stock community about potential sharp declines in the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, with predictions of a sell-side circuit breaker on the KOSPI index.
On August 26, a post in a domestic online stock community claimed, "Tomorrow, Samsung and Hynix will trigger a sell-side circuit breaker, expecting a -20% drop." The author, identified as A, suggested that Nvidia's earnings report could signal the end of the so-called 'semiconductor bubble,' forecasting Samsung's stock price at 50,000 won and SK Hynix at 200,000 won. This reflects concerns that the gap between expectations for the AI industry and actual corporate value may have widened.
However, the prediction of a simultaneous 20% drop for both Samsung and SK Hynix lacks objective evidence at this time. It is difficult to equate concerns over overheating AI investments with the potential for short-term declines in individual stocks.
Opinions within the community are divided on this claim. One investor argued, "The scale of future AI investments and guidance are more important than Nvidia's earnings," suggesting that a reduction in big tech's AI investments could negatively impact semiconductor stocks.
Conversely, another commenter stated, "Concerns about an AI bubble and a simultaneous -20% drop for Samsung and SK Hynix are entirely different issues," questioning whether the forecast is unnecessarily amplifying fear ahead of the earnings report.
Other users noted, "While it is true that semiconductor stocks have recently undergone corrections, it is difficult to directly link this to a crash," and suggested that if Nvidia's earnings exceed market expectations, it could actually restore investor confidence in semiconductor investments.
Meanwhile, market expectations for Nvidia's earnings remain high. Analysts predict that revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 will reach approximately $92 billion, with future investments in AI data centers and demand for next-generation products identified as key variables.
Ultimately, the speculation of a -20% crash appears to be a scenario rooted in the debate over the overvaluation of AI semiconductors. The actual direction of stock prices will likely depend not only on Nvidia's earnings but also on data center revenues, future guidance, and the sustainability of big tech's AI investments.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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