As Nvidia prepares to announce its earnings, discussions are circulating in domestic stock communities that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stocks could plummet by as much as 20% in the next trading session, potentially triggering a sell-side car on the KOSPI.
On August 26, posts emerged in online stock communities stating, "Tomorrow, Samsung and Hynix will trigger a sell-side car with a predicted drop of 20%." The author of the post, identified as A, suggested that Nvidia's earnings report could signal a collapse of the so-called 'semiconductor bubble,' projecting Samsung's stock price at 50,000 won and SK Hynix at 200,000 won.
A noted, "While AI is indeed essential to human life, stock prices do not necessarily rise in proportion to technological advancements," referencing Cisco's experience during the dot-com bubble in the 2000s. He argued that despite semiconductors being central to the AI industry, current stock prices may be excessively inflated compared to actual corporate value.
He further questioned, "If Nvidia and M7 companies declare a reduction in reckless investments, is the current stock price justifiable?" He suggested that the recent rise in Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices due to increased memory prices might be a temporary phenomenon.
Indeed, ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, investor sentiment in the domestic semiconductor market has been dampened. On August 25, Nvidia's stock fell approximately 2.9% in the U.S. market, with Samsung and SK Hynix also showing weakness during trading. Samsung's stock was down over 2% at 250,500 won, while SK Hynix dropped to 1,629,000 won.
However, it is important to distinguish between 'caution ahead of earnings' and 'confirmation of semiconductor bubble collapse.'
Currently, market expectations for Nvidia's earnings are relatively high. The consensus for Nvidia's second-quarter revenue for fiscal year 2027 is around $92 billion, representing an expected increase of about 97% year-over-year. The company's guidance also suggested a figure around $91 billion.
Reuters reported on August 25 that ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement, the market is focusing on demand for AI data centers, the growth potential of next-generation Rubin products, and the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments. Analysts noted that Nvidia's significant financial involvement in AI infrastructure investments has heightened concerns about an 'AI investment bubble.'
Thus, the notion of overheating in AI investments is not unfounded. Key questions remain about whether Nvidia's high growth rate can be sustained, if big tech's AI infrastructure investments will translate into actual profits, and whether valuations of AI-related companies are overly optimistic regarding future growth rates.
Particularly, the current performance of domestic semiconductor companies does not definitively indicate a 'bubble collapse.' Market data shows that SK Hynix recorded revenues of 79.3 trillion won in the second quarter of 2026, confirming strong demand for AI memory.
Both Samsung and SK Hynix hold significant positions in the supply chain for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI accelerators, suggesting their roles in Nvidia's supply chain will likely increase.
However, risks also exist. If investments in AI data centers slow more rapidly than expected, or if big tech companies reduce capital expenditures, or if HBM supply increases sharply leading to price drops, the profit outlook for Samsung and SK Hynix could significantly decline. Given the high price volatility in the memory sector, debates over market peaks can greatly impact stock prices.
Recently, the sell-off in semiconductor stocks has been notably strong in the domestic market. On August 24, the KOSPI fell 3.12%, closing at 6,696.96, with semiconductor stocks like Samsung leading the decline.
However, the fact that semiconductor stocks have recently faced corrections is a different issue from the prediction of a 20% drop in the next trading session.
For Samsung and SK Hynix to each drop by 20%, a shock far stronger than a simple 'earnings disappointment' would be necessary. This would require Nvidia's earnings to fall significantly below market expectations, alongside a sharp downward revision of future AI data center investment forecasts and deteriorating demand and price outlooks for HBM.
Ultimately, while the posts circulating in the community highlight a potential scenario regarding overheating in semiconductor and AI investments, there is a lack of objective evidence to support the prediction that Samsung and SK Hynix will drop 20% on a specific date.
Meanwhile, Nvidia is set to announce its earnings on August 26, Korean time. The actual market direction is likely to be determined not only by the earnings themselves but also by data center revenue, demand for next-generation products, future guidance, and the sustainability of big tech's AI investments.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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