The analysis, based on data from KB Kookmin Bank, examined 125 apartment complexes, selecting the five highest-priced complexes in each of Seoul's 25 districts. It was provided to Rep. Shin Dong-wook of the main opposition People Power Party.
Under a scenario in which Seoul apartment prices continue rising by 11 percent a year, the same pace recorded between June 2025 and May 2026, apartments subject to the comprehensive real estate holding tax would be found in 22 of Seoul's 25 districts by 2030.
Only Gangbuk, Geumcheon and Dobong districts would have none among the complexes examined. The number of taxable complexes in the sample would rise from 78 this year to 101 by 2030.
The comprehensive real estate holding tax is imposed on owners of high-value real estate above a specified deduction threshold, in addition to the ordinary property tax charged by local governments.
The simulation reflects the government's proposed tax changes from 2027, including a basic deduction of 1.4 billion won for owner-occupied homes and 1.2 billion won for properties where the owner does not live.
The tax burden could also rise sharply if home prices maintain their current trajectory.
For the 125 complexes studied, the combined tax burden for owners who do not live in their properties is estimated to increase from 58.9 billion won this year to 526.2 billion won in 2030, nearly nine times the current level. For owner-occupied homes, the figure is projected at 334.7 billion won.
Even if annual home price growth slows to 5.5 percent, half the recent pace of 11 percent, the tax burden would still increase substantially. Under that scenario, 82 of the 125 complexes across 19 districts would be subject to the tax by 2030, while the combined tax bill for non-owner-occupied properties would reach 292.6 billion won, about five times this year's level.
“If housing prices continue rising, the tax could increasingly affect ordinary homeowners across Seoul rather than only owners of the city's most expensive properties,” Shin said.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.
