Political analysts emphasize that bipartisan agreement is essential for any constitutional amendment. Without the support of the People Power Party, the leading opposition party, it is nearly impossible for any amendment proposal to pass through the National Assembly. Consequently, some suggest that the ruling Democratic Party may need to concede control of discussions to facilitate the process.
According to reports on September 9, the People Power Party holds the key to any potential amendment. If the party officially opposes the proposal, it is unlikely to pass in the Assembly.
To amend the constitution, three major steps must be followed. First, a majority of the current 299 lawmakers must propose an amendment. Alternatively, the president can submit a proposal after deliberation by the Cabinet. Second, the proposal must receive approval from at least two-thirds of the Assembly during a plenary session. Finally, it must be approved by a majority of voters in a national referendum.
Given that the People Power Party currently holds 109 seats, if all its members oppose the amendment, the chances of it passing are virtually nonexistent. In May, a constitutional amendment proposal was brought to the Assembly by then-Speaker Woo Won-sik, but it failed to proceed due to the party's opposition and its members' absence from the vote.
The People Power Party argues that President Lee Jae-myung is undermining the separation of powers while attempting to push through a term extension amendment. In response to the Democratic Party's proposal for a 'gradual amendment,' the People Power Party advocates for a comprehensive amendment that would result from in-depth discussions.
In a recent address, Jung Jeom-sik, the party's floor leader, stated, "There will be no constitutional amendment under this government. We will not engage in discussions with those who are clearly violating the constitution for personal gain."
Experts advise that the ruling party should propose an 'opposition-led amendment' to draw the People Power Party into public discussions. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong noted in a conversation with Aju Economy, "In a situation where they are being dragged along, would the People Power Party be inclined to pursue an amendment? They need to be accommodated to take the lead in the amendment process. If the opposition proposes to change the power structure, the People Power Party is unlikely to oppose it."
There are also concerns that the government and ruling party are fostering distrust. Cha Jin-ah, a professor at Korea University Law School, warned, "If the focus is merely on extending terms without addressing the issues of the imperial presidency, it could exacerbate the problems of the '87 system.' The government's shifting statements regarding amendments make it difficult to trust them."
Some analysts suggest that the Democratic Party might attempt to secure 'rebel votes' from the People Power Party instead of reaching a consensus. Given that they have previously found common ground with parties like the Justice Party, Progressive Party, Reform Party, Basic Income Party, and Social Democratic Party during past amendment discussions, securing just 11 votes from the People Power Party could help them reach the necessary 200 votes for an amendment. In fact, some members of the People Power Party have publicly expressed their support for constitutional amendments.
However, making a choice contrary to party lines during an actual vote is challenging, and the political burden of processing an amendment without bipartisan agreement is significant, making it unlikely that the ruling party will opt for this route.
According to reports on September 9, the People Power Party holds the key to any potential amendment. If the party officially opposes the proposal, it is unlikely to pass in the Assembly.
To amend the constitution, three major steps must be followed. First, a majority of the current 299 lawmakers must propose an amendment. Alternatively, the president can submit a proposal after deliberation by the Cabinet. Second, the proposal must receive approval from at least two-thirds of the Assembly during a plenary session. Finally, it must be approved by a majority of voters in a national referendum.
Given that the People Power Party currently holds 109 seats, if all its members oppose the amendment, the chances of it passing are virtually nonexistent. In May, a constitutional amendment proposal was brought to the Assembly by then-Speaker Woo Won-sik, but it failed to proceed due to the party's opposition and its members' absence from the vote.
The People Power Party argues that President Lee Jae-myung is undermining the separation of powers while attempting to push through a term extension amendment. In response to the Democratic Party's proposal for a 'gradual amendment,' the People Power Party advocates for a comprehensive amendment that would result from in-depth discussions.
In a recent address, Jung Jeom-sik, the party's floor leader, stated, "There will be no constitutional amendment under this government. We will not engage in discussions with those who are clearly violating the constitution for personal gain."
Experts advise that the ruling party should propose an 'opposition-led amendment' to draw the People Power Party into public discussions. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong noted in a conversation with Aju Economy, "In a situation where they are being dragged along, would the People Power Party be inclined to pursue an amendment? They need to be accommodated to take the lead in the amendment process. If the opposition proposes to change the power structure, the People Power Party is unlikely to oppose it."
There are also concerns that the government and ruling party are fostering distrust. Cha Jin-ah, a professor at Korea University Law School, warned, "If the focus is merely on extending terms without addressing the issues of the imperial presidency, it could exacerbate the problems of the '87 system.' The government's shifting statements regarding amendments make it difficult to trust them."
Some analysts suggest that the Democratic Party might attempt to secure 'rebel votes' from the People Power Party instead of reaching a consensus. Given that they have previously found common ground with parties like the Justice Party, Progressive Party, Reform Party, Basic Income Party, and Social Democratic Party during past amendment discussions, securing just 11 votes from the People Power Party could help them reach the necessary 200 votes for an amendment. In fact, some members of the People Power Party have publicly expressed their support for constitutional amendments.
However, making a choice contrary to party lines during an actual vote is challenging, and the political burden of processing an amendment without bipartisan agreement is significant, making it unlikely that the ruling party will opt for this route.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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