As the KOSPI attempts to stabilize above the 7000 mark, the domestic stock market next week is expected to be influenced by Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings and the trend of U.S. long-term interest rates. Analysts noted that confidence in the semiconductor sector has been bolstered by Micron's strong performance and an increase in domestic semiconductor exports. However, with U.S. Treasury yields remaining high, a selective approach focusing on sectors supported by improved earnings is advised.
According to the financial investment industry on October 3, Daishin Securities, NH Investment & Securities, and Yuanta Securities identified Samsung Electronics' third-quarter preliminary earnings, U.S. interest rates, and international oil prices as key variables for the domestic stock market next week.
The most anticipated event is the announcement of Samsung Electronics' third-quarter preliminary earnings scheduled for October 8. Despite recent downgrades in Samsung's earnings forecasts, Micron's strong results, rising memory prices, and robust domestic semiconductor exports have heightened expectations for Samsung's performance.
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, predicts that Samsung's earnings guidance is likely to meet or exceed the lowered market expectations. If earnings forecasts are revised upward following the announcement, the semiconductor sector could regain its leadership, potentially allowing the KOSPI to break through and stabilize above the 7000 mark.
Recent results from Micron have also raised expectations for the semiconductor sector. Micron's revenue for the fourth quarter of the 2026 fiscal year reached $54.23 billion, surpassing market expectations of $51.07 billion. The gross profit margin was 87%, exceeding the anticipated 85.2%. The revenue guidance for the next quarter is also projected to be between $60 billion and $63 billion, exceeding market forecasts.
Domestic exports are also supporting expectations for semiconductor performance. In September, South Korea's exports totaled $120.94 billion, an 83.5% increase from the previous year, with semiconductor exports rising 262.8% to $60.3 billion.
NH Investment & Securities also assessed that the trend of consistent earnings growth in the semiconductor sector remains valid. Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, projected the KOSPI's range for next week to be between 6500 and 7500.
Na noted that for the KOSPI to break through the upper range, improvements in the macroeconomic environment are necessary. If negotiations between the U.S. and Iran progress, leading to a drop in international oil prices, or if U.S. economic indicators show a slowdown, the stock market could rise, particularly in the semiconductor sector. He also highlighted IT as a core sector, along with secondary batteries and defense as areas of interest.
U.S. employment data is also considered a major variable for the stock market next week. Lee Kyung-min suggested that if a slowdown in U.S. employment is confirmed, concerns about further tightening by the Federal Reserve may ease, potentially reducing the burden of Treasury yields.
However, there are uncertainties regarding a rapid decline in U.S. long-term interest rates. Yuanta Securities analyzed that the recent rise in long-term rates cannot be solely explained by international oil prices. Factors such as the expansion of fiscal deficits due to the Trump administration's tax cuts and increased U.S. Treasury supply, along with the rise in corporate bond issuance by AI companies, are also limiting the decline in long-term rates.
As a result, it is expected that next week, market focus will likely remain on sectors supported by earnings rather than the overall index.
Lee Jae-won, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, stated, "The presence of earnings capable of withstanding high interest rates will determine sector performance." He emphasized the need to maintain a core investment opinion on semiconductors while focusing on sectors where both 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) and revenue forecasts have been revised upward over the past month.
Yuanta Securities also noted that in the KOSDAQ, the concentration of funds that had previously focused on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the first half has eased, with capital now flowing into semiconductor materials, components, equipment, and IT hardware. However, given the ongoing high-interest-rate environment, it is not yet the stage for a broad-based recovery across all sectors.
Ultimately, next week’s stock market is expected to see a tug-of-war between the microeconomic positive factors of semiconductor earnings and the macroeconomic pressures of high interest rates. If Samsung Electronics meets or exceeds the lowered market expectations, alongside confirmation of U.S. employment slowdown and stabilization of international oil prices, it could bolster attempts for the KOSPI to stabilize above the 7000 mark.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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