On June 29, Brent crude futures for August delivery closed at $73.15 per barrel, up 1.6% from the previous session. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery rose 2.2% to $70.75 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Oil prices have fluctuated significantly since the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, reflecting the ongoing situation in the Hormuz Strait. Following Iran's attacks on civilian vessels while demanding the use of designated shipping lanes, the U.S. struck Iranian drone and missile bases, leading to further escalations, including Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
However, market sentiment interprets these clashes as short-term military pressure aimed at enhancing negotiation leverage rather than a precursor to full-scale war. The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to discuss issues related to the Hormuz Strait in Doha, Qatar, on June 30, with shipping conditions and route management expected to be key topics.
Haris Kourchid, Chief Investment Officer at Karob Capital, told Bloomberg, "The market views this movement as a short-term variable rather than a structural change. Investors are not actively moving in either direction regarding oil prices unless there is a fundamental shift."
Additionally, a decrease in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has contributed to upward pressure on oil prices. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, as of June 26, SPR inventories fell by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983.
Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, the Trump administration has released strategic reserves in large quantities to mitigate supply shocks. Concerns are growing that the SPR's inventory, now at a 40-year low, may limit further releases.
If no stability measures for shipping are established during the Doha negotiations, volatility in international oil prices could increase again.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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