◆ Ajou Economics Major News
▷ Fearless retail investors earn over 9 trillion won in high-risk derivatives this year
- Since the beginning of the year, retail investors have generated over 9 trillion won in profits from the high-risk derivatives market within just five months.
- The surge in the KOSPI and a rally in semiconductors have led to successful bets on long positions, resulting in significant gains.
- According to data submitted to the National Assembly by the Financial Supervisory Service on June 29, the profit and loss from domestic and foreign exchange-traded derivatives for retail investors from January to May reached a surplus of 9.1129 trillion won, approximately 5.9 times higher than last year's annual profit and loss of 1.5543 trillion won.
- The profit from domestic exchange-traded derivatives for the same period is recorded at 9.3162 trillion won.
- After four consecutive years of losses—331.5 billion won in 2021, 1.079 trillion won in 2022, 222.6 billion won in 2023, and 1.5111 trillion won in 2024—the trend has reversed.
- In contrast, foreign exchange-traded derivatives have shown a loss of 203.3 billion won this year, with cumulative losses of 1.7959 trillion won from 2021 to last year.
- The trading volume is also on the rise. From January to May this year, the trading amount for domestic exchange-traded derivatives by retail investors reached 2636.9179 trillion won, about 82.3% of last year's total trading amount of 3205.3759 trillion won.
- The number of new retail investors entering the derivatives market has surged. A total of 38,172 individuals completed training for futures and options trading from January to May, 1.7 times the 22,387 who completed training last year.
- Analysts attribute the strong stock market this year to an increase in retail investors' derivatives trading volume and profit maximization.
- In fact, trading in derivatives based on individual stocks has also skyrocketed.
- According to the Korea Exchange, as of today, the trading amount for individual stock futures by retail investors has reached 545.336 trillion won, an increase of about 4.2 times compared to the same period last year.
- The trading amount for stock options has also surged to 5.479 trillion won, an increase of nearly eightfold.
- The night derivatives market, which opened in June last year, has also contributed to the expansion of trading. This month, the average daily trading amount in the night derivatives market reached 101.8116 trillion won, a 635% increase from the average of 13.8525 trillion won in the first month after its opening in June last year.
- However, experts caution against excessive leverage investments based solely on recent performance.
◆ Major Reports
▷ US-China AI Computing Gap [Meritz Securities]
- While China is rapidly expanding its AI infrastructure, the gap with the United States is actually widening.
- The key bottleneck in this widening gap is advanced manufacturing capabilities. Chinese foundries, blocked from accessing EUV lithography equipment, face limitations in yield.
- The performance of single chips also lags behind NVIDIA's latest GPUs.
- Although the number of clusters in China surpasses that of the US, overall computing power is more than seven times behind, indicating that the average computing capability per cluster is about 1/12 that of the US.
- China's expansion of AI infrastructure is not keeping pace with performance enhancement. The speed of technological self-sufficiency needs to be confirmed for any potential shift in the competitive landscape.
- Huawei has proposed a goal of producing 1.4-nanometer chips by 2031 using its 'logic folding' technology, which layers circuits without EUV.
- The company plans to launch its next-generation mobile chip utilizing this technology this fall, marking a crucial test for China's advanced manufacturing self-sufficiency.
- If product competitiveness is proven, investment momentum could spread across China's entire AI infrastructure chain.
◆ Major Announcements After Market Close (June 29)
▷ Amicogen signs a contract for management rights transfer through new share issuance (major shareholder change from Magapartners Investment Association to YK Bio Nova Holdings)
▷ National Glass and M, contracts with Hanwha for 5.4 billion won glass work at Seoul Station North
▷ Orient Bio appoints Professor Kwon Myung-sang from Kangwon National University as a new outside director
▷ IQUR decides on a 21.2 billion won third-party allocation capital increase
▷ Mobile Appliance appoints Shin Wook-ho as CEO following Choi Yoon-keun's resignation
▷ Daebang Housing borrows 4 billion won in short-term funds from Daebang Construction
◆ Fund Trends (as of June 26, excluding ETFs)
▷ Domestic equity: -98.7 billion won
▷ Overseas equity: -33.2 billion won
◆ Key Schedule for Today (June 30)
▷ South Korea: May industrial activity trends
▷ China: June NBS manufacturing and services PMI
▷ Japan: May unemployment rate and industrial production
▷ Europe: June consumer price index (preliminary)
▷ United States: April S&P/CS and FHFA housing price indices, May JOLTs job openings, June Chicago PMI, June Conference Board consumer confidence index
* This article has been translated by AI.
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